Change-In-Trend

with Anthony, ZigZag & Platy

Target Reached – Further Weakness Expected

As i outlined in yesterdays post i was looking for an upside target of around the 133 area on SPY. This target was achieved by combining both the SPY chart showing the downward sloping Andrews Pitchfork and also the geometric angle support lines. Using this method i also combined the AstroCycle outlook and the individual cycle progression chart for the S&P500. To confirm the geometric resistance target i then calculated the upper resistance band value which i posted yesterday at 1328.29. The actual high for the day fell within 10 cents at 1328.39.

We met this target intra-day as a result my short trigger trade filled. The downside target now remains 1298-1291 with the ideal low around 1291 for a retest of 21 May lows.

It its also worth noting that the SPX 200dma is beneath at 1278 also in confluence with the lower sloping Andrews Pitchfork line, should we break volatility band support sending us into an extreme oversold condition and likely the wave 5 low.

If we breach the prior lows it is possible that i may have to rephase the current count producing a short wave 5 low, but for the time being i want to see how far this is willing to fall and indeed where we find support, the AstroCycle is certainly showing a very negative pathway ahead.

Im also looking at potentially a retest low but a slightly higher low, this would not invalidate the wave 3 low, meaning that wave 4 up is potentially still to come and then move sharper below wave 3 starting around the end of May into early June. Again just something to keep on the radar.

We could be moving into the following scenario should the wave 5 eventuate in the next couple of days. This pattern does negate the extreme bearish path outlined by the AstroCycle without negating the high it pinpointed for 22-23 May and also incorporates a high at the end of May and subsequent June lows captured by both the AstroCycle and the Natural Cycle which has been presented below. This should also coincide with lower gold prices into the late June time period a date corroborated by Terry Laundry.

The upside dollar resistance target was also met as you can see by the below chart the dollar hit the upper boundary and got stopped in its tracks reaching a high of the day at 22.65, we could also see  a higher dollar today as equities move down into the low as the dollar hugs the upper resistance band.

For the time being ill just let this short trade run and monitor the strength of support as we make our way downwards paying close attention to the 200dma and lower pitchfork line and volatility bands for support levels.

Should we post new lows in the final hour i will initiate a long trade signalling the completion of the minor 5th wave and major 3rd wave.

Anthony

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This entry was posted on May 23, 2012 by .

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