with Anthony, ZigZag & Platy
Yesterdays move to the downside was enough for me to revisit the current wave structure of the market. In my analysis i managed to uncover something very interesting. The market has actually been moving in a set of 3 mini waves within each minor wave since the April top. Because of this the expected mini wave 5 did not eventuate and as a result we missed out on the opportunity to short the market at the mini wave 5 high.
I have plotted on the chart each mini wave since the April high shown in blue. The count has been startling consistent and may well set the precedence for the next 2 weeks. From a measured move perspective i have drawn each measured move in both yellow and pink. The yellow measured moved represent the moves down and the pink represent the pullbacks.
Each downwards measured move has ranged between 5-6 days and within a range of 71.55pts – 73.66pts in length. Knowing this i have charted both the 5 & 6 day measured move from the minor wave 4 high, giving us a projected low into 05-06 June a date corroborated by both the Natural Cycle and the AstroCycle.
On Friday we burst lower through the volatility bands indicating that we are now severely oversold it is possible the Monday will bring an inside day and test the 1299 area before moving down again in 05-06 June, represented by the red line, which is actually half of the measured move yellow line drawn from the high of the projected inside day.
Using the recent pullback measured move to the upside shown in pink i have then projected this from the 05-06 June low indicating a high into potentially Friday 08 June – Monday 11 June before the next and final measured move lower into the mid June low again date corroborated by my cyclical progression works.
As i have previously alluded to, the wave structure since the April high has changed from a mini wave 5 structure to a mini wave 3 structure. Therefore, i am going to make the assumption that the next leg down into mid June is going to complete the mini wave structure of 3 waves and also major wave 4 of the major wave structure of 5 waves around the 1230 area in confluence with the measured move and long term geometric support, leaving one major wave 5 up, likely to be constructed of 5 minor waves.
Both the AstroCycle and Natural Cycle have been updated and the models reviewed. The models are projecting a 4-6 June low, before a move up into 8 – 11 June and then a move down into major low 14-15 June.
A revisit of the McClellan Oscillator supports the view of an oversold bounce on Monday after hitting pitchfork support before finding resistance at the downwards sloping pitchfork and resumption of the downtrend into new lows.
The overall theme is that selling is not over and will last into mid June based on the recent wave structure of the market.
At some point over the weekend i am going to take a look at the gold market to see whether this recent bounce can be sustained or is a fake-out to the upside.
Have a good weekend