Change-In-Trend

with Anthony, ZigZag & Platy

3 Waves Goodbye

Yesterdays move to the downside was enough for me to revisit the current wave structure of the market. In my analysis i managed to uncover something very interesting. The market has actually been moving in a set of 3 mini waves within each minor wave since the April top. Because of this the expected mini wave 5 did not eventuate and as a result we missed out on the opportunity to short the market at the mini wave 5 high.

I have plotted on the chart each mini wave since the April high shown in blue. The count has been startling consistent and may well set the precedence for the next 2 weeks. From a measured move perspective i have drawn each measured move in both yellow and pink. The yellow measured moved represent the moves down and the pink represent the pullbacks.

Each downwards measured move has ranged between 5-6 days and within a range of 71.55pts – 73.66pts in length. Knowing this i have charted both the 5 & 6 day measured move from the minor wave 4 high, giving us a projected low into 05-06 June a date corroborated by both the Natural Cycle and the AstroCycle.

On Friday we burst lower through the volatility bands indicating that we are now severely oversold it is possible the Monday will bring an inside day and test the 1299 area before moving down again in 05-06 June, represented by the red line, which is actually half of the measured move yellow line drawn from the high of the projected inside day.

Using the recent pullback measured move to the upside shown in pink i have then projected this from the 05-06 June low indicating a high into potentially Friday 08 June – Monday 11 June before the next and final measured move lower into the mid June low again date corroborated by my cyclical progression works.

As i have previously alluded to, the wave structure since the April high has changed from a mini wave 5 structure to a mini wave 3 structure. Therefore, i am going to make the assumption that the next leg down into mid June is going to complete the mini wave structure of 3 waves and also major wave 4 of the major wave structure of 5 waves around the 1230 area in confluence with the measured move and long term geometric support, leaving one major wave 5 up, likely to be constructed of 5 minor waves.

Both the AstroCycle and Natural Cycle have been updated and the models reviewed. The models are projecting a 4-6 June low, before a move up into 8 – 11 June and then a move down into major low 14-15 June.

A revisit of the McClellan Oscillator supports the view of an oversold bounce on Monday after hitting pitchfork support before finding resistance at the downwards sloping pitchfork and resumption of the downtrend into new lows.

The overall theme is that selling is not over and will last into mid June based on the recent wave structure of the market.

At some point over the weekend i am going to take a look at the gold market to see whether this recent bounce can be sustained or is a fake-out to the upside.

Have a good weekend

Anthony

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11 comments on “3 Waves Goodbye

  1. Pingback: S&P500 Target Met « Change-In-Trend

  2. Anthony Tudela
    June 4, 2012

    Look for a low today in the 1262-1265 area, followed by a bounce for 1 day and then resumption downwards, be patient for the real buying opportunity in late June

    Anthony

  3. Anthony Tudela
    June 3, 2012

    Bem-vindos Joao!

  4. Joao Pinto
    June 3, 2012

    Anthony, thank you for your fabulous reports. SInce last week i “found you” i have been reading everyday. You have at least one Portuguese reader, me!!!

  5. Anthony Tudela
    June 2, 2012

    JParker

    The roadmap has been set out above.

    I would question that we have already entered the Puetz crash window on the 29 May that many were expecting, 2 days earlier than expected, hence also why i was looking for mini wave 5 up. This also means that the low projection based on the new moon cycle will also be early by 2 days pinpointing 14 June as the low, spot on with my cycle progression charts.

    Anthony

    • Jim
      June 4, 2012

      Re: Puetz. Six days before to six days after the full moon, within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse..especially when the full moon is also a lunar eclipse. Calendar, or market days, doesn’t seem to be specified on the old internet link material. As I read it, the Puetz window ends by Friday, but then other astro possibilities for panic happen later in June and generally for the next three years.

      Jim

  6. JParker
    June 2, 2012

    Do you have any thoughts on how the lunar eclipse may effect the market early next week. Many are saying it could produce another huge down day on Monday?

  7. Maggi
    June 2, 2012

    Since the wave projection does not work on 1 June 2012, COuld the waves have sorted of “inverted”? That means 4/5 June becomes a high within the trend and 15 June also inverted to become a high?

    • Anthony Tudela
      June 2, 2012

      No.

      The cycle progression may not have pinpointed the exact high, but the pressure of lower prices shown in both the AstroCycle and Natural Cycle are unmistakable. The warning was actually early by 2 days. We waited for the mini wave 5 to go short but it never eventuated. Looking back at the wave structure it is clear now why.

      I would not want to be a buyer here until the time cycle says pressure is up.

  8. Anthony Tudela
    June 2, 2012

    Hi David

    Thanks for the feedback.

    This market is hard enough as it is, if i can make things a little clearer for people, good people or give them another angle, then ive achieved something.

    Thanks for dropping by.
    Anthony

  9. david dever
    June 2, 2012

    Anthony, i’ve been stalking your site recently. It is now part of a daily read and checking in on your intra-day thoughts. thank you for your thorough work. you produce high quality market interpretations.

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