Change-In-Trend

with Anthony, ZigZag & Platy

Wave 5 Nearing Completion

Friday was certainly unexpected with many analysts including myself expecting a push down into July 2 – July 3. It is clear that the cycles have inverted and this time window will now be a high and complete the minor 5th wave before we head down again into mid July.

There is a tendency for the cycle progression charts to become inverted and then revert back to their normal cycles. If this is the case then we can assume that the July 2- July 3 high will result in a low around 10 – 11 July and then the possibility of a lower low in the 20-23 July time frame although at this point i would like to see how this high plays out first.

The S&P500 chart clearly shows that we are moving up into a minor wave 5 completion around 02 – 03 July with a targeted measured move around the 1380 area in confluence with the Andrews Pitchfork line and also the volatility band resistance line.

The Composite time cycle for the S&P500 shows that recent cycle inversion.

The Mercury News Cycle shows an earlier inversion with a dip into the 12 July.

The Natural Cycle.

Lastly the AstroCycle is showing that on completion of the minor wave 5 we should be heading downwards.

Both the USD and also the VIX are showing signs of moving into their final minor 5th waves before they turn bullish which is equities bearish sign. Marginal new highs could result in a fast and sudden break to the downside.

Thanks

Anthony

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26 comments on “Wave 5 Nearing Completion

  1. maxpwrs
    July 8, 2012

    Anthony,

    this is playing out as expected so far. we did retraced all of the euro news. the rally at the end of the day was a bit unexpected but i think all of it will be sold monday. i expect to see the retrace all the way to spx 1310 or so before we rebound hard into the spx 1350 – 1360 area for a another short. i think the 1280 bottom area by end of week next week is not out of the question. anyway do you think we are rhyming with 2011?

    Mike

  2. Allan
    July 7, 2012

    Don’t know about the cycles but there’s some pretty bearish patterns emerging on the weekly index charts both US,Europe and Asia and so much for the action last from the Eurozone, lasted exactly one week and Spanish 10yy’s spiked again.

    Markets look determined to sell off big time to me.

  3. maxpwrs
    July 6, 2012

    Anthony,

    I have a different read. I still think the cycle got disrupted by the blah blah news from europe last week. That news has unwind big time as seen by the Euro. I think today look analogous to Jun 23 on the composite cycle. I think tomorrow we will have the whole faux news rally unwound.

  4. Anthony Tudela
    July 6, 2012

    Ill be updating charts this weekend.

    All cycles are currently inverted and showing a high positive correlation suggesting that a reversion back to its normal cycles is not underway. Therefore we can continue to follow the inverted cycle. I have devised an early warning indicator of any future inversions also.

    The News Cycle and AstroCycle is suggesting that Friday should be an up day.

  5. Anthony Tudela
    July 4, 2012

    A bottom next week may be premature, we would ordinarily expect 5 waves down so the end of July to early August would be a more consistent time frame.

  6. maxpwrs
    July 4, 2012

    since we are roughly in tune about the possible top…i think your call for a bottom by next week make sense and i look forward to deploying some capital on the long side.. Is 1280 still a potential target or are you thinking that the drop may only get to spx 1310 – 1300 area? thanks for your work anthony.

  7. Anthony Tudela
    July 4, 2012

    I am also currently investigating the validity of Tidal CITs and the effects of the Sun and Moon upon our oceans.

  8. Anthony Tudela
    July 4, 2012

    I recommend you join the time-price-research forums there is lots of info there

    http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/Time-Price-Research-I/

    • Rezito
      July 5, 2012

      Thank you!

  9. Rezito
    July 4, 2012

    Great job Anthony!

    Are there any books out there that you know of that teaches astro cycles?
    Thanks,

  10. drrock
    July 4, 2012

    Anthony,

    When you have time, can you give an update on gold and post new cycle charts?

    Thanks

    • Peter
      July 4, 2012

      Hi Anthony,

      What is your target for gold at the end of july?

      Great job!

      Thanks.

    • drrock
      July 4, 2012

      …just read your post above about not focusing on gold right now…ok

      • Anthony Tudela
        July 4, 2012

        Gold is an untirely different beast and is ruled by the sun. At present I am just focusing on SPX and getting this inversion detection done.

        By the way upside measured move target has also been met in confluence with time and Fib time ratios.

        Thanks
        Anthony

  11. Anthony Tudela
    July 3, 2012

    Today is day 21 of Fib time cycle from 04 June low and also 1.618 x 19 June high to 25 June low Fib time extension.

  12. Anthony Tudela
    July 3, 2012

    Hi Allan

    The USD should ideally have formed a lower low to complete wave 5. The VIX has formed a lower low so has completed wave 5 the SPX is completing wave 5.

    Ive moved away from focusing on gold in terms of the cycle progressions as i want to stick to my “specialist area” however in my opinion we still need to head lower to form the wave 5 low.

    • Allan
      July 3, 2012

      Thanks buddy.
      In regards to gold I was kind of expecting a long term cycle low to form lower lows in the metals and higher lows in the stocks.
      Not sure if that is how it plays out but gold still looks lack lustre here and volume once again dropping off.
      Cheers

  13. Allan
    July 3, 2012

    Anthony,
    Given that the S&P cycle looks to have inverted is that also the case for the USD and Gold?

    Cheers

  14. Mike
    July 3, 2012

    Anthony,

    It looked like we are topping right about here. maybe 10 more spx points but I don’t see much upside. The bullgasm seem to have played out and there are real genuine concerns about growth everywhere now. Interesting that the market is projected to head higher after this potential vicious fall. All into a great “wall of worry” it seem…

    • Anthony Tudela
      July 3, 2012

      Yes it would seem that way. Ive entered a short position right here i dont see us going above 1380. Also this would complete minor wave 5.

      Ahh the wall of worry. September 2010 comes to mind and we all remember how high that wall was.

  15. Maggi
    July 2, 2012

    No system is prefect..80% gd enough Thanks for sharing/

  16. mike
    July 2, 2012

    Anthony,

    I think I mentioned earlier that it is not that the system has inverted but of a time shift. Almost like the high made on june 29 was the predicted high back in june 25. everything seem to shift about 4 -5 days or so. Anyway, with such bullish news, the result point to a much lower low before the week is over. Thanks for taking time to updates your outlook.

    • Anthony Tudela
      July 2, 2012

      Mike

      Not a shift. A perfect inversion since 25 June.

      Ill spend more time trying to devise an early warning system that could identify these inversions sooner.

  17. Anonymous
    July 1, 2012

    Face it…it’s mostly a “rigged market”, neither you nor anyone else can guess what will happen in the future. If you could, YOU would be the new “worlds richest man”. That’s why no “system” ever holds up in the long run. They ALL get an ass pounding sometime.

    • Rezito
      July 2, 2012

      Yeah, there is no perfect system. It’s all about odds and limiting risk. I find being a contrarian works. Don’t waste your time looking for “the system” that beats the market all the time.

    • Anthony Tudela
      July 2, 2012

      Anon

      Youll find my system over time does a good job the reason for that is because the premise it has been built on will never change.

      If you look back at the cycles they have done an astounding job, remember they are time forecasts. Even software like Sentient Trader which costs thousands of dollars cannot do what my system does.

      Even if it were 100% correct which no system is I would still not be the worlds richest man, unlike Bill Gates my leverage is limited to maybe 10x.

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