Change-In-Trend

with Anthony, ZigZag & Platy

Possible low today

I have alignment on the INDU pointing to a possible low today, and the correlation chart has a low coming in today or tomorrow.

Posted by ZigZag.

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68 comments on “Possible low today

  1. cycleanalysis
    August 10, 2012

    ZigZag can you make an update soon with new graphs ?

  2. phantom
    August 10, 2012

    zz,
    whats your though for next week, again great cal;
    thanks

    • ZigZag
      August 10, 2012

      Hi Phantom,

      The cycle has a peak on the 9th and a low around the end of August. My guess is down next week, but we have to remember that August is normally a positive month in a 4th year Presidential cycle, so I’m just waiting for the end of August before adding more to longs.

  3. Anthony Tudela
    August 5, 2012

    Steven i could well be wrong here ill know more on Monday, ive been flip flopping all day with my idea for a high. If we pull back a bit then higher in 07/08 ill short, but like ZigZag said the trend remains up.

  4. steventrees
    August 5, 2012

    ZZ, Anthony change his forecast a little, will you update your forecast?

    • ZigZag
      August 5, 2012

      The correlation chart is close to a peak and the short term cycles converge on Aug 9th. Price should reverse when we hit Aug 9th. My best guess is it will be a peak around Aug 9th, but I doubt we sell off very much after it hits. August is normally the strongest month in 4th year Presidential Cycles for the SPX. I don’t think we see a major high until we get closer to the election.

      Right now, I’m just waiting to see what happens next week before deciding to add more to long positions.

  5. Anonymous
    July 31, 2012

    Does anyone see in their analysis a sharp drop into August 1-3 in the SPX?

    • Anonymous
      August 1, 2012

      No, I see a drop today. πŸ™‚

  6. Big Pimp
    July 30, 2012

    Next Low SPX 1338, then we grind to 1400 around August 7-9th.

  7. Pingback: The Drop Zone « Change-In-Trend

  8. Anonymous
    July 28, 2012

    ZZ, what do you see for next week, do you think we continue up for a couple more days? Thanks

    • ZigZag
      July 28, 2012

      We definitely have the momentum for a couple more days up with possibly a pause after Aug 1-2. We will likely see another strong move up into Aug 9th.

  9. Anonymous
    July 28, 2012

    Hi Anthony and ZZ

    wondering if you guys have a target for the reverse low?

    Thanks!

    • ZigZag
      July 28, 2012

      I just posted this above to Karen. It could be the next low date before a final push to Aug 9th. Just something to keep an eye on.

      —————

      Karen, I was looking at some things this morning and I did find something that might align with Aug 1-3. I don’t know if it will be a high or a low.

      http://tinyurl.com/ckvau37

      • Karen
        July 28, 2012

        ZZ, thanks, looks like a ramp job today…VIX not buyin’ it.. Don’t know if we will see lower lows now on SPX and DJI, but looks like we could see a swift sell-off or huge gap down next week, seems it all happens overnight…. I still see RUT with lower lows and lower highs so far…in downtrend channel…

        FXE backtesting 122.19 support/resistance line, we will see next week if this holds….

        Thanks for your work….and Anthony as well, glad I found this site…. :))

  10. Peggy Mateer
    July 28, 2012

    impressive ZigZag and Anthony! There’s a simple bar count that puts the .618 extension of the last wave down at a top today 12:30 to 13:00. Maybe a good place for a pullback to the up trendline.

    • ZigZag
      July 28, 2012

      Interesting, thanks

      • Peggy Mateer
        July 28, 2012

        Previous QLD wave = 49 30 min bars. Bar 30 (49 x .618) “coincided” with a big break to the upside. I look at the .618 (1.618, etc) bars with a sense that something significant will happen there (a decisive time). Next cit would be at the 49th bar (49 x 1) which arrives at the close on Monday.

  11. ZigZag
    July 28, 2012

    If you’re a swing trader it’s probably a good spot to take some profits.

    Pretty darn good run since hitting that Tuesday low cycle, no? πŸ™‚

    http://tinyurl.com/c8kjtz7

    • Anonymous
      July 28, 2012

      i’m in XIV and SSO, do you think i should take half off both today?

      • ZigZag
        July 28, 2012

        I usually will take off 20-30% just in case I can get in somewhere lower again. I haven’t taken any profits at all since the lows of last October. All I’m doing is trying to find the best areas where I can add to positions.

  12. Anthony Tudela
    July 28, 2012

    If its going to pullback now would be the time 1374-1375 90 deg from 1329 low.

  13. Rezito
    July 27, 2012

    Somebody here will be on the wrong side of the trade πŸ™‚
    I’m seeing this rally fizzle out fairly soon so I’m just holding on to my guns or rather shorts.

  14. Anthony Tudela
    July 27, 2012

    Im still thinking we’ll get our spike low in the next couple of days.

  15. ZigZag
    July 27, 2012

    It’s looking like Aug 9th will be the date to watch. Cycle hits at key highs and lows all converge on Aug 9th. Price heading into this date will likely reverse.

    http://tinyurl.com/ckherbs

    • Karen
      July 27, 2012

      I see that date as a possible high, but do you see a lower low possibly around Aug 1-3 first? We’d have to start to turn by tomorrow or Monday…

      • ZigZag
        July 27, 2012

        It’s possible that we could come back and test that cycle low on the 24th. I can’t find anything that aligns with Aug 1-3, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

        EUR/USD bounced off of a trend line going back to 2005 and TLT looks like it’s ready to come back down.

      • ZigZag
        July 28, 2012

        Karen, I was looking at some things this morning and I did find something that might align with Aug 1-3. I don’t know if it will be a high or a low.

        http://tinyurl.com/ckvau37

  16. Anonymous
    July 26, 2012

    ZigZag Thanks for your reply what was the name of the blog you started yourself?

    • ZigZag
      July 26, 2012

      http://zigzagcycle.blogspot.com

      It’s still a work in progress. Heck, I haven’t even updated it yet. I wasn’t kidding when I said I like it here better πŸ™‚

  17. maxpwrs
    July 26, 2012

    Anthony,

    That is interesting as that were the original readings from last week. however, since we put in a significant low from the july 19th drop, do you think the cycle has inverted so that we rally from here to the begining of august?

    thanks,

    mike.

    ps. welcome on board ZZ. i will be following your postings with interest.

    • Anthony Tudela
      July 26, 2012

      Mike

      I dont think so. ZigZags work was looking for a low around 24/25 July and has been very accurate in the past. As readers will know though cycles have a tendency to invert during OPEX weeks. Having said that ZZs work in my opinion should we get a low around 30 July still be accurate for a high into 02-09 August as he pointed out in his correlation chart.

      In terms of my time cycles weve just been through a large inversion i doubt we’ll get another one for a while.

  18. Anthony Tudela
    July 26, 2012

    On the trading front ive updated the News Cycle and the Astro Cycle, both are pointing to lower prices into 30 July.

    • Rezito
      July 26, 2012

      Where can I see the updated chart Anthony?

      • Anonymous
        July 26, 2012

        Ill post it shortly on my prior blog entry.

        Anthony

    • Anonymous
      July 26, 2012

      Just to clarify – the low is no longer expected today but is now Monday?

  19. Anonymous
    July 26, 2012

    Hello ZZ, where did you used to post before?

    • ZigZag
      July 26, 2012

      I used to post quite a bit over on the Cyclical Market Analysis blog. Before that, I was posting at Trading To Win. I started my own blog a month ago and Anthony invited me to be a contributor here. I must say, I actually like it here better πŸ™‚

      • Anthony Tudela
        July 26, 2012

        ZZ not many pitchforks here :). Make yourself comfortable…..

  20. Anonymous
    July 26, 2012

    ZZ, what your target for this next move up? Thanks

    • ZigZag
      July 26, 2012

      Hard to say. I’m not very good on price as I mostly follow time. As long as this low cycle holds I’m guessing we could go above the July 19th high, possibly higher.

  21. Rezito
    July 26, 2012

    With all do respect, I still don’t see any panic selling to mark a low. I believe we’ll need to see some form of capitulation to get a sustainable bottom, no?

    • ZigZag
      July 26, 2012

      Anything is possible Rezito. I try to find dates that give me the best odds of a reversal and there’s always the chance that we invert and that second week of August becomes a low. I still believe we’ll see new highs before the elections.

  22. H2535
    July 25, 2012

    Hello Antony and ZZ, and ZZ I am happy to see you here too, thanks for sharing your valuable info πŸ™‚

  23. francisrussia
    July 25, 2012

    GREAT JOB by ZZ
    Thank you so much!!

  24. Karen
    July 25, 2012

    Sorry ZZ, I just looked at your chart further and saw your August dates, but what do you see for July 31/Aug1st?

    • Anthony Tudela
      July 25, 2012

      Karen from my perspective there is the possiblity that the 31 August could be a high leading to an inversion and a resulting 6-8 August low. It all depends on how the rest of this week plays out. Price wise we have not broken the 1324 key support.

  25. Karen
    July 25, 2012

    You don’t see a bounce this week and then more selling into July 31/Aug 1? That time period could be very negative astrologically. Then there is a another turn around Aug 9 +/- 3 days (Aug 10-16) where we could turn down into end of Aug 24-27th.. Is this something you see on your charts? I’m looking at it from an astro and cycle point of view….

  26. Anonymous
    July 25, 2012

    I have seend ZZ blog/comments at another blog, gd to see ZZ here as his timing cycle is unique.

  27. Remzi Başar
    July 25, 2012

    Hi ZZ and Anthony,

    What is your expectations for Gold and Silver?
    Do you have any price target and time projection for ST and MT?

    Thanks,
    RB

  28. Anthony Tudela
    July 25, 2012

    Great post ZZ.

    Im in agreement. My AstroCycle is certainly calling for a low today tomorrow.

  29. Anonymous
    July 25, 2012

    ZZ, when we put a low either today or tomorrow, how long will up trend last and what is your target for the SPX for the next move higher. Thx

    • ZigZag
      July 25, 2012

      Right now, I still think it’s likely that we’ll see new highs by September or nearer to the election. I’m not sure on price, but perhaps it will resemble something similar to the correlation chart.

  30. DoubleD
    July 25, 2012

    Anthony,

    What a great addition to your blog. Thanks!

    Zig, welcome to this site. If others dont know who you are they soon will. Look forward to following your work along with Anthony T’s excellent work.

    Double

    • ZigZag
      July 25, 2012

      Thanks Double!

    • Anthony Tudela
      July 25, 2012

      ZigZag is a specialist with time symmetry. He has an eye for it so for me it was a no brainer after reading his analysis over a number of months.

  31. Anonymous
    July 25, 2012

    Zig zag do you have a target area for the low tomorrow? Tia

    • ZigZag
      July 25, 2012

      I must warn you that I am horrible at daily price targets. My best guess is they will keep it above 12,400

  32. KM
    July 25, 2012

    In light of Apple earnings miss, does this change anything?

    • ZigZag
      July 25, 2012

      It could be off by a day due to the Apple earnings miss. Sentimentrader posted this interesting stat this evening.

      sentimentrader: There were 8 times $AAPL gapped > -5% after earnings. Impact on the broader mkt in days/weeks ahead was…exactly same as random.

      • Anonymous
        July 25, 2012

        Zig zag – by that do you mean it had no effect?

        • ZigZag
          July 25, 2012

          I believe he means it was basically a coin flip on where the market went next.

          I haven’t looked at it on the chart yet, but these are dates when it happened.

          Apple stock is getting hit hard after missing its earnings estimates. Over the past 15 years, there have been 8 times AAPL opened at least -5% the morning after an earnings release. Performance in the broader market in the days/weeks ahead was in line with random. For those curious, the dates were 10/16/97, 7/18/01, 7/17/02, 1/15/04, 4/14/05, 10/12/05, 1/23/08 and 7/22/08.

  33. tesko99
    July 25, 2012

    Welcome to this blog ZigZag.

    FYI,
    This seems to be a bit contrary to Anthony’s post yesterday of the low being reached Friday into Monday. It’s only a few days but a few days can make a significant difference for day traders.

    • ZigZag
      July 25, 2012

      Thanks tesko99.

      The cycles are all +/- a day. I rarely day trade and I’m only interested in picking areas to add to positions from the cycle low last October. I probably should have mentioned that I don’t day trade in the title of the post.

    • Anthony Tudela
      July 25, 2012

      Hi Tesko yes you are correct on 1 count. The News Cycle says Friday to Monday the Astro Cycle says 25 +/- 1 day.

      Whats interesting is that the Gann price level has almost been activated at 1324.

  34. Anonymous
    July 25, 2012

    Hey ZZ, when are you expecting a new high on the SPX?

    • ZigZag
      July 25, 2012

      I believe we will see new highs around that late September date. It’s possible it stretches further out until the election.

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