Change-In-Trend

with Anthony, ZigZag & Platy

The Drop Zone

Im going to start by saying great call by ZigZag for nailing the low. His time symmetry charts are refreshing, relevant and most of all accurate. So given ZZ’s accuracy i thought i would apply some analysis to his time forecasts and things seem to be lining up very well indeed.

First of all im going to shows ZigZags work he posted in the comments section, i advise you to view his other posts showing the time symmetry for a 9 Aug high.

https://changeintrend.wordpress.com/2012/07/25/possible-low-today/#comments

Next im going to post my cycle charts to see how this lines up with ZZ’s analysis.

Both the Astro Cycle and the News Cycle are showing that we are due lower prices early next week before a move higher into 6-9 August there are some slight variations on this high when you compare both cycle charts, with the Astro Cycle calling a low on 9 August. So i will be on the look out for any possible inversion early next week which would ultimately be signaled by higher prices.

Now given these timings for a change in trend lets look at potential reversal areas.

1) 01/05/12 high to 09/08/12 is 71 trading days + holidays. 1266 04/06/12 low + (71 x 2) = 1408

2) 19/07/12 high – 24/07/12 low x 1.618 = 1412

3) 29/05/12 high – 04/06/12 low * 2 = 1403

4) 27/07/12 high – target of 1350 * 1.618 = 1412

5) 24/07/12 low to 27/07/12 high (measured move) projected from 1350 target = 1412

6) 27/07/12 high of 1389 is 270 deg from all time high 1576 and 45 deg from prior high at 1380 on 19/07. 180 deg from this gives us a pullback target of 1354-1360.

7) Given this pullback target 360 deg from 1354-1360 is guess what 1408-1412.

8) 1408 is also sq of 9 270 deg harmonic from 666 06/03/09 low

9) 1404 is 180 deg sq of 9 harmonic from all time 1576 high

again i could keep going so in short here is the chart to look out for for potential reversal zones.

I cannot emphasize enough the importance of each individual to study and dedicate the time needed to uncover these amazing time and price patterns.

Having said that im still undecided of whether we are heading into a high or a low lol.

Have a great weekend.

Update: New Market Pulse tool is suggesting that a Change-In-Trend is imminent however there are numerous dates around 06-10 August which is likey to reflect in choppy price action. The Market Pulse tool counts the number of optimum time conditions for a change in trend and plots these occurences against an SPX chart. The peaks have been highly accurate at forecasting a time for a change in price direction.

Be mindful of a projected CIT date on the 08 August, this could be a low into the next CIT date of 13 August. This is also a time tool and not a direction or price tool. Ill continue to monitor the efficacy of this tool over the next month.

Anthony

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100 comments on “The Drop Zone

  1. Anthony Tudela
    August 18, 2012

    Rez

    This was posted on 13 August. At that point we were at support which was proven correct as we finished the week higher by 15pts?

  2. centsabletrader
    August 13, 2012

    Great site. A lot of good info. You are very generous to post this like this. Cycle question. I have been following a 2 week cycle of ups and downs. On Aug 2 I was expecting a high and got a low. On Aug 9th I was expecting a low and got somewhat of a high. Is this an indication of a change of a trend in the works? I would think a change would be confirmed if this cycle traded below SPX 1354 by this Thusday Aug 16th. I know that is quite a move, but we have seen better receintly. And this would confirm by cycles what many others have targeted by other means with stops at 1350.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 13, 2012

      Centsable,

      A lot of people are looking for a considerable drop. We are currently at stong support so for me the bias is up, ill be buying any dip as early as Monday to Tuesday but i will be monitoring how we act around current support.

      • Rezito
        August 18, 2012

        Hi Anthony,

        It’s a bit confusing for me. We just made new multi week highs today how is that we are at support. Do you mean resistance? What level do you see as support?

  3. mishka76
    August 10, 2012

    Great blog guys ! Loving your work ! As of today, the futures are down, do you think we’re heading down into Aug 13th

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 10, 2012

      Hoping so to 1385 into 13th where i will be a buyer.

  4. cycleanalysis
    August 10, 2012

    ZZ is seeing a low from 23-25 August I think , is it still valid ?

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 10, 2012

      Yes at this point it is valid. The Impulse System has a low around 20 August give or take a day. By my calcs that could see a low around 1366.

      • Anonymous
        August 10, 2012

        Thanks for great blog and great posts to you Anthony and to ZZ.
        Above you wote that 20 aug will be a high (in response to InvestBB), now you write it will be a low. I am a bit confused. Could you please explain?

      • Anthony Tudela
        August 10, 2012

        Ok heres what I see which should clarify. We have been consolidating. On 8 August I goy an Impulse CIT date. The news cycle is suggesting a move down into 13 August. Then a lower high on 15 then final low around 20th. The problen is that on a geometric basis support is just below. So we could consolidate inti next CIT on 13 August and then move higher into 20 August.

        Thats how I see it but the correlation chart has been very accurate this year. Until this support breaks I wont consider a 20 August low.

  5. cycleanalysis
    August 10, 2012

    Hi

    Do you agree with ZZ that a possible low could be in by end of August and what levels on SPX do you see possible by end of August ?

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 10, 2012

      Read my previous response to InvestBB

  6. Anthony Tudela
    August 10, 2012

    Id probably add that if you look back at the majority of major sell offs youll notice that very vew started with a consolidation, so the fact that we are trading sideways shows that any sell of is being engineered to encourage retail short sales. This would mean that we indeed move down but the magnitude is likely to be limited. I think we are foming another base before an assualt higher. The news must come to the party now and signal that the world is ready to roll over. I believe the ECRi has already said we are entering recession. So this should tip momentum for the short run, just dont load up on shorts and be preparted to go long again.

  7. Karen
    August 10, 2012

    Btw, does anyone on this site (Gann followers, etc.) see any kind of unexpected quick move down, kind of like a mini-flash crash first or second week of Sept? I am seeing something unusual happening around that time…may be something or may be just a quick pullback, not sure..??

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 10, 2012

      Karen i have 04 Sep as a possible low. I dont think there will be any flash crashes though. Not before we reach 1440

  8. Anthony Tudela
    August 10, 2012

    InvestBB

    I have 2 areas for a low of varying magnitudes.

    1384-1380
    1370-1364

    We need to break support at 1397-1398 which could set up our potential change in trend for a 13 August low at 1386 which will then set up a 20 August high.

    I know ZigZag is waiting for this move down so well just have to see how it plays out.

    Thanks
    Anthony

  9. guelph1
    August 10, 2012

    good morning
    zz, if today is positive, can we expect a downturn to start tomorrow?
    if negative today, does that sugest a reverse and we will continue to grind up through August as Anthony is predicting?

    appreciate any coments & your work

    • ZigZag
      August 10, 2012

      It can actually start at anytime today and I usually give it a 2 day window. If this cycle is correct, I’m still not sure how much of a drop we will have. I still think there will be a better spot to buy towards the end of August.

  10. francisrussia
    August 9, 2012

    ZZ 😀
    Appreciate your view and guidance
    You’re an expert .

    Thank you can not enough~

  11. Anthony Tudela
    August 9, 2012

    Late September by my projections around 1440 (144 is a Gann number)

    • investbb
      August 10, 2012

      Morning Anthony

      Wondering if you may know a target for the low in early September? wondering what it maybe around if you do.

      Tks!

  12. investbb
    August 9, 2012

    Hi Anthony

    you dont see 13-14 as a higher price anymore?

    tks

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 9, 2012

      We will trade sideways to down here but dont expect much downside. The Pulse System says a change in trend is due Friday to Monday, at this stage it is more likely it will be a low.

  13. ZigZag
    August 9, 2012

    Anon,

    My thinking is we won’t see a big drop until sometime soon after the 9th. It’s possible that we could have seen the high already today.

    • Anonymous
      August 9, 2012

      Hi ZigZag

      Looking at the calendar, tomorrow is 9th. Freaky close.

      wondering if you seeing what Anthony is seeing as well with SPX dropping into a final low in early September and not near the end of August from what you forecasted in your chart?

      Thanks!

      • Anthony Tudela
        August 9, 2012

        Anon ,please get a wordpress account so we can differentiate readers. Thx

  14. Anthony Tudela
    August 9, 2012

    We reached my upside target of 1404-1412, im now expecting consolidation to slight pullback into 20 August with final low sometime in early September.

    Thanks
    Anthony

  15. Umar Bhatti (@kamukak)
    August 9, 2012

    ZZ You have not updated your chart/thoughts last week. Greatly appreciated if you do pls.
    Any Target for your coming correction after 9th of this month?
    Thank you

    • ZigZag
      August 9, 2012

      Hi Umar,

      I still think we’re hitting a high this week and the next low should be towards the end of August. Could be a 3.5% decline into late August, possibly more. The only concern is August is normally the strongest month in 4th year Presidential Cycles.

      I’m basically just watching this one and not buying until I see what the end of August looks like.

      http://tinyurl.com/98jvuwg

      • Anonymous
        August 9, 2012

        Hi ZZ

        Are you still dont think we hit a high yet for this week?

        Thanks!

  16. francisrussia
    August 8, 2012

    Unique —ZZ 😀
    ZZ is a genius
    thank you so much for the lower point what you said and wonderful view on Jun 4th and July 24th

    This music for you, hope you’ll be like it
    And say thank you for your give and good

    ZZ, you are very humble and benevolent

    I hope all the people to love more about you

  17. stockyard262
    August 8, 2012

    for Gannsta’s out there…early oct should be a low if 1422 april is THE high of year…180 degrees (6 mos.) gets first week oct.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 8, 2012

      Also full circle from 04/10/11 major low. Im thinking a high though.

  18. ZigZag
    August 8, 2012

    I would like to see the SPX retrace 3.5% maybe more by Aug 25-28. I’m not really sure on this one because of the 4th year presidential cycles during August. If we see a big drop after Aug 9 then I’ll be more confident of a low towards the end of August.

    • fionamargaret
      August 8, 2012

      Concerning TLT – your ideas on that would be appreciated.
      Thanks.

      • ZigZag
        August 9, 2012

        I tried doing some cycle work on TLT years ago it failed miserably. I don’t follow it that much anymore. I have found the channel tool to be useful on the weekly chart to find highs an lows. If I’m correct about Aug 9th then TLT should head back up test the late July peak. Sorry I’m not much help on TLT.

  19. Anonymous
    August 8, 2012

    Thanks for answer. How deep do you see the potential retrace? And how long could it last, is it till the 25-28 August? Martin

  20. ZigZag
    August 8, 2012
    • Anonymous
      August 8, 2012

      Could you please comment it. Thanks. Martin

      • ZigZag
        August 8, 2012

        Hi Martin,

        Weekly is likely hitting a top.

    • crisstoff
      August 8, 2012

      Great charts ZigZag!! Im a student of TTheory and its easy to see the similarity in your work:) Looking at your weekly chart it looks like the next turn is Oct. I have a couple of charts pointing to late Nov as a turn. Problem is they one is a hi and the other a low so was interested if you had any ideas that far out?
      Chris

      • ZigZag
        August 8, 2012

        Thanks crisstoff.

        My best guess is late September or early October will be a high and late November will be a low. Need to see the market sell off after this week and then see if we can locate the center post of a new T and fine tune those dates.

  21. Anthony Tudela
    August 7, 2012

    ZigZag thanks for your great input
    Anthony

  22. mike
    August 7, 2012

    Steve

    I think ZZ’s is saying that on a monthly basis, we may not have much changes however intra-month we could have 120 points swing. We just had something on a smaller scale a couple of weeks back. Going from 1380 to 1325 and back up to here in a span of 2 + weeks.

  23. stevesteve121
    August 7, 2012

    Hi ZZ,

    would it be possible to explain how the correlation chart is derived?

    also, did you say you weren’t expecting August to be a down month despite the big drop shown in the chart?

    thanks

    • ZigZag
      August 7, 2012

      Hi stevesteve121,

      The correlation chart was found from a cycle technique that I use for finding similar dates and price from the past. I can generally get an idea of what the trend is when I find them. This particular chart was found in May 2011 when Bin Laden was killed. The hard part is finding the correct mid point in the cycle. I guess you could say my cycle methods would be similar to George Lindsay or Terry Laundry.

      What I meant was we might not see huge ping-pong type of point swings in the market during August and I don’t think we’ll have as big of a push down in price as the correlation chart suggests (I could be wrong on that one). I’m definitely not adding more to my longs until I see what happens after the 9th and the end of August. I still expect August to be down, but I won’t be 100% sure until I see what happens after the 9th.

  24. Rezito
    August 7, 2012

    This kind of a top doesn’t occur over 1 trading day. I believe we’ll go through a topping process this week with the peak anywhere from today to Thursday. It needs to feel like the market can’t go down before it tops.

  25. ZigZag
    August 7, 2012

    FWIW, I’m not expecting big price swings this month.

    Presidential Cycles for August since 1916: 14 were up, 5 were down and 6 were flat. Since 1972, only 1 August was down and 6 were up.

  26. ZigZag
    August 7, 2012

    The correlation chart is showing a peak today, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make another high by the 9th. Just a heads up here..

    http://tinyurl.com/ce567x5

  27. Anthony Tudela
    August 7, 2012

    1402-1408 resistance here. 1408 360 deg from July 24 low. 1402 180deg from 1567 all time high.

  28. Anthony Tudela
    August 6, 2012

    We could get both. Now thats confusing i.e a drop after 08/09 then quick retest into 13/14. Im not sure its going to be a great shorting opportunity the trend is up. Whatever happens on those dates just do the opposite as it is a CIT.

  29. beetlejuice
    August 5, 2012

    LOL now i’m totally confused!

    Hows about we flip a coin?

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 5, 2012

      Higher prices ahead into 13/14 August, thats all you need to know.

      • Nicky
        August 6, 2012

        Anthony I like that with the cycles I watch. There is a 10 day cycle pointing higher into the end of this week/early the following week and the 45 and 90 day cycles are due to top mid August plus or minus a week with potential focus on the 15th August. I think we may see a slightly higher higher early tomorrow and then a pullback of a day or so before turning higher.

      • jwdchan
        August 6, 2012

        Thank you Anthony.
        Have a great weekend.

  30. Anthony Tudela
    August 5, 2012

    The dollar needs to complete its mini wave 4 up with CIT date around 07/08 August so i think well sell off here on Monday only to move into 13/14 August high.

  31. Anthony Tudela
    August 5, 2012

    Karen ive been flip-flopping for most of the day on this one, im pretty sure about CIT dates but its the same old scenario of high vs low. Im leaning towards a crest. The News Cycle model is giving me mixed signals hence why i have not posted it until is a bit clearer.

    Thanks for your input
    Anthony

  32. Karen
    August 5, 2012

    Last week there was a turn on Weds and Thurs, we bounced as I thought on Weds (not as much as I thought) then we turned down into Thursday, the next turn date, where we then turned up.

    This week the turn is on Tues and Friday…seems we would be down into Friday. I’m noticing a possible ending diagonal on SPX with resistance in the 1400 area…we’ll see.

    Anthony and ZZ, I had thought we would be at a crest around 12-16th, but looks like we could see a trough…your thoughts?? Anthony, you are already mentioning you see a crest. It is a considerable turn date so whether it is a crest or trough, the move afterwards should be considerable….I am thinking a trough because on the 15th there is a negative Mars Saturn conjunction…

    • Karen
      August 10, 2012

      Two turns this week, Tues and Friday, Tues we moved up, so I am assuming we will be moving down tomorrow. After-hours action is already negative. I see that we could be lower into 12/13th, but it looks like we bounce and then head back down possibly into the 16th, where there is another possible turn date.

      Anthony/ZZ do either of you see a low around/on the 16th?? Thanks!

      • Anthony Tudela
        August 10, 2012

        The Impulse System is giving a CIT date for the 17th August.

        The News Cycle is showing a 15 August high and 17 August low. But it has been inverted for a while and this is dependent on a drop now into the 13th August, otherwise invert those highs and lows.

  33. Anthony Tudela
    August 5, 2012

    Revising my forecast. We are down into 07/08 August up into 13/14. I think well see a major high here.

  34. Anthony Tudela
    August 5, 2012

    Nicky im better with time than price, we could sell off into early September.

  35. Nicky
    August 5, 2012

    Thanks Anthony. I am looking at a possible ABC, with A ending at 1404, B pulling back to 1380, C topping at 1418 (levels will have to be adjusted once A is in). So that could work with your cycles. After the 9th are you expecting a large correction in time and price?

  36. Anthony Tudela
    August 4, 2012

    Closed out longs been a decent week. Im thinking that we continue up moderately agree with the hanging men maybe early sell off then recovery later in the sessions, will look to go short into ZZ’s time frame possibly a day or two earlier.

    • Nicky
      August 5, 2012

      Anthony if I understand correctly zig zag is looking for a high on 9th August. Therefore if you are looking to sell a day to two early that would be 7/8. How does that work if you are looking for a recovery after a sell off early next week?

      • Anthony Tudela
        August 5, 2012

        Nicky,

        My cycle model suggests 7-8 August for a high. However i think that after such a large up day on Friday we could pull back before heading up again.

        Recovery as in sell off in the morning and then higher by the close. I still think well get above 1400 before we see serious resistance.

  37. Rezito
    August 4, 2012

    Thank you Anthony and ZZ, have a nice weekend. If we get a drop on Monday that would confirm the high of 1400+ mid week otherwise we may get a few bars of spinning tops or hanging men (candle sticks).

  38. beetlejuice
    August 4, 2012

    ZZ and Anthony well done boys.

    Whilst we may go a little higher maybe even gap up on Monday before reversing, it looks like time to start thinking about some serious shorts.

    Cheers

  39. ZigZag
    August 4, 2012

    Traders who bought the cycle at the close on Wednesday are currently up 15 SPX points. Keep an eye on Aug 9th. Have a good weekend 🙂

    • ZigZag
      August 4, 2012

      The correlation chart shows the high on Aug 4th (which is now Monday), but the shorter time frame cycles converge on Aug 9th. It’s possible we could go sideways next week until Aug 9th. I still think we’re going to see new highs before the election.

  40. Rezito
    August 3, 2012

    I was expecting a drop to 1345-1350 but I guess that wouldn’t happen anytime soon. I’m covering shorts and going long now.

  41. Anthony Tudela
    August 3, 2012

    Now flipped back to the longside at the close smaller position. No stop as yet. Max downside target is 1333. Upside 1405-1418 into August 6-9.

  42. jwdchan
    August 3, 2012

    Hi Anthony

    we just hit 1360ish and bounce back to 1370+, pretty strong bounce, wondering are you still looking for this 1340 by friday?

    THanks!

    • Rezito
      August 3, 2012

      I’m shorting the bounce. I still think we’ll get a drop. I’ll probably cover some time Friday after the payroll numbers.

      • jwdchan
        August 3, 2012

        Hi Rezito

        you have a target/level/price in mind for this drop?

        Thanks!

  43. Anthony Tudela
    August 2, 2012

    Im thinking lower 1340.

  44. Mike
    August 2, 2012

    Anthony,

    I am thinking spx 1346-1358 may mark the low you are looking for. i think spx 1346 will be a quick down and up whereas 1358 will be a more durable bottom to head up.

  45. Anthony Tudela
    August 2, 2012

    Yes i have a target. Please get a wordpress acct. thx

  46. Anonymous
    August 2, 2012

    Hi Anthony

    This up into August 6-9 with spy/spx, do you have a target/level/price in mind?

    Thanks!

  47. Anthony Tudela
    August 2, 2012

    So far so good, looking for a low today or Friday.

    • ZigZag
      August 2, 2012

      That’s what I’m thinking too.

  48. Anthony Tudela
    August 1, 2012

    Just reviewing the model (not posted) it looks like we have inverted so down into the end of the week, up into August 6-9 then down into 18-22. More to come as the move unfolds.

    • Rezito
      August 1, 2012

      That would make sense Anthony. The market gets disappointed by the lack of a QE announcement tomorrow and sell off into the payroll numbers. My charts are saying a short term top that will provide a short term long signal.

  49. Anthony Tudela
    August 1, 2012

    Anon, please get a WordPress account.

    Yes, more downside.

    • Anonymous
      August 1, 2012

      Will do

      • vic
        August 3, 2012

        testing

  50. Anonymous
    August 1, 2012

    Hi Anthony, can I please get your thoughts on today’s action especially if we close in the red. Do you expect continued downside into Aug 2nd? Thanks

  51. Anthony Tudela
    July 31, 2012

    ZZ

    Nice charts.

    • vic
      August 3, 2012

      Hi Anthony , what charts are u reffering to ?

  52. Anthony Tudela
    July 31, 2012

    Karen

    Maybe, im still bearish very short term until we pop up and then decline into a trough mid August

  53. Anthony Tudela
    July 31, 2012

    Anon, today/tomorrow for a high.

  54. Anthony Tudela
    July 31, 2012

    Eris, hi, not seen you here before. Anniversary maybe of what i dont know. May have to dig up some news from back then to see if theres anything.

    Im still looking for a drop here before heading higher but it needs to happen soon, otherwise that scenario is off.

    • Karen
      July 31, 2012

      Anthony, ZZ, We could see a turn down start on Thursday the 2nd, maybe Wednesday afternoon (Wednesday has the potential for a bounce, but may or may not last through the day)… Tomorrow (Tuesday) we could see a range bound day where we go lower in the day then back up, but end around the similar opening price..

      Don’t know how much we could pop up on the 6/7th, but there could be another turn down as soon as the 6-8th…I am seeing a potential trough around 13-16th…

      Do you have similar dates for a trough?

      • Anonymous
        August 1, 2012

        Hi Karen, do you also see a high 6-8th or do you see a continued selling from Aug 2nd to the trough? thanks

      • Karen
        August 1, 2012

        Anon,

        Can’t imagine that we would sell off for 8 TD’s, the pattern has been that we sell off usually for a total of 3-5 TD’s at most before we bottom…

        Today I was expecting we could be range bound, but we got pretty bearish price action. I have two turn dates this week (Weds and Thurs) so we could bounce tomorrow, then be down Thurs/Fri or vice versa, but I am favoring a bounce tomorrow…?? We will see…SPX remained within a tight descending triangle/bull wedge (breakout direction will determine which).

        Can’t really tell whether 6/8th will be a higher high or lower high. Normal price action would say that it would be a lower high, therefore lending to a further sell-off, but anything can happen in this market since we are in a liquidity driven market…any announcement of QE by US or Europe is bullish, at least temporarily…

        I had a target of 12,000 on the Dow for this summer’s correction, now I have a target of approx 13,800-14,000 for a top (could get there towards the end of the year, maybe Nov/Dec). We are not far away from that so I am assuming we zig zag all the way up, won’t be a straight shot. When we get there, it should start to get interesting….

    • Anonymous
      July 31, 2012

      Anthony, what is the deadline for the drop before the scenario is off? Thanks

  55. Eris
    July 29, 2012

    Hi Anthony & ZZ, I notice that 8-August-2011 was also a strong support date and turning point. Does this have any relevance to 8-August-2012? Something like an anniversary for example? Or is purely co-incidental that 8/8/2011 and 8/8/2012 are turning points?

    Great blog!

    Thanks

    • ZigZag
      July 31, 2012

      Hi Eris,

      There is a connection to the second week of August that has been hitting since 2008.
      http://tinyurl.com/cwyqo5d

      On a smaller time frame, I’m seeing multiple cycles hitting around August 9th for likely reversal..
      http://tinyurl.com/ckherbs

  56. Anthony Tudela
    July 29, 2012

    Anon, i really dont know whether we will head into a high on 09 August or whether that will be the low im just waiting to see what will happen early next week. if we head down then ill say it will probably be the high, if we continue up i think it will be the low.

  57. Anonymous
    July 29, 2012

    Hi Anthony, thanks for your charts, they are very interesting….

    If we continue to grind higher to mid next week will you still be expecting another high on Aug 9? or could this possible be a lower high? Thanks

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