Change-In-Trend

with Anthony, ZigZag & Platy

At Support

It seems to me that those that have gone short may well be surprised by a further move higher. We are currently sitting at support shown by the Fibonacci extension. Monday is a CIT day it remains to be seen if the level of 1397-1393 (SPY) , 1394-1390 (SPX) can be broken. If it cant break through this level on Monday there is a very good chance we will move higher into 17-20 August at a measured move higher to around 1422 (SPY) 1420 (SPX). The 20 August also marks the 55th Fibonacci day from the 04 June low. If we are to form a high on Monday from 1416 to 1422 (SPY & SPX) it is likely that we will decline into 20 August to a target of 1366 roughly 360deg from a projected high of 1420.

The current cycle progression charts can only be described as choppy at best so i am not posting them until things become a little clearer.

Update: We should break out to new highs based on the New highs/lows indicator. The red circles represent previous test of the volatility bands. volatility is contracting so we are setting up for a big move, which direction remains to be seen.

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211 comments on “At Support

  1. cycleanalysis
    September 3, 2012

    ZigZag instead of commenting everytime – why dont you make a new chart on where you think the cycles high and lows are like you did in past ? Much easier for people to understand.

    Thanks

  2. Anthony Tudela
    September 3, 2012

    Hi ZigZag i agree. I generally have lower into elections however i possibly have a mid September new high before this decline happens.

    Solar CIT:
    04-05 Sep

    MasterCycle:
    06-Sep low
    10-Sep high
    18-Sep major low

    My main work is contrary to the MasterCycle as it shows that we are higher into a major high around 18-21 Sep. So we will have to see if this MasterCycle has inverted which would line the high up with my other work.

    The MasterCycle is a new concept and something that i have been working on behind the scenes. Going forward ill be presenting the dates like this, im also working on a paper highlighting the statistical edge of my CIT methods.

    Unfortunately i cannot release the methods as they have taken many years to develop.

    Thanks
    Anthony.

  3. steventrees
    September 3, 2012

    Thanks ZZ: great analysis, so top is forming, but do we still have the final push before election day?

  4. ZigZag
    September 3, 2012

    I will likely be a buyer if we are down on Tuesday, however, I don’t see much upside left before a large selloff starts. If I am correct, then the next low will be around election day and then a seasonal push up to the first week of January. Our next major buy point could possibly not come until the end of March.

    Back to my fishing boat and beers 🙂

  5. guelph1
    September 2, 2012

    happy weekend all
    was the 31st a high on the chart? Sep 5/6 a low?
    thanks for your help. I am still new to this

  6. Anonymous
    September 1, 2012

    Odd lots are bearish, Nasdaq sentiment is at a peak, and Apple looks like a great short right here right now–this does not look like a bottom to me. Thank you ZZ and Anthony, you both are great.

    • mishka76
      September 1, 2012

      Hi ZZ and Anthony

      Looks like your aug 30-31 CIT timed a double low ! Fingers crossed till Tuesday ! Welldone and thank you ! Like you say, you do the timing and the charts should dictate direction .

      When is the next CIT date please ?

      Thanks

    • Anthony Tudela
      September 1, 2012

      05/06 Sep

  7. guelph1
    September 1, 2012

    hi ZZ,
    given today’s probable close in the positive, do you think next week will continue down?
    thanks, & have a great weekend all

  8. aiihotline
    September 1, 2012

    Mr. Market, we need a direction please….

  9. Tim
    September 1, 2012

    Kinda of a no nothing sideways week here looks like we may close just about unchanged from last week.

  10. Karen
    September 1, 2012

    My chart says another swift move down, before we get a choppy move up later in the day…

  11. Klaas
    September 1, 2012

    Long on a new low ..thats the question :))))

  12. Tom_27
    August 31, 2012

    Hi guys,

    First of all thank you for great info. Don’t worry about haters. Sometimes it is the frustraction that takes over people, and they misbehave. I like what Anthony, ZZ, Karen, Tim and many others do here, and I really appreciate it. I use your info to confirm my findings. Once a very good trader told me that I should always blame myself for bad trade, and learn from it.

    ZZ, question for you, and sorry if it was already asked. Of course if you dont mind sharing, what vehicles do you use to go long. Is it ETFs, futures or maybe options?

    Cheers, and again thanks for everyone’s input, very much appreciated.

    • ZigZag
      August 31, 2012

      Hi Tom,

      I mainly go long ETF’s and 6 to 8 momentum stocks. When the market gets choppy I look for some high yield plays while I wait..

      I do have a small chunk sitting in a few overseas oil E&P companies that are 3 to 5 year holds. I try not to look at that one very often, it might give me heart palpitations Lol

      • Tom_27
        September 1, 2012

        Thank you, ZZ. Great info from you and many. Good trading guys.

  13. guelph1
    August 30, 2012

    good morning
    ZZ, will you be going long tomorrow?

    • ZigZag
      August 31, 2012

      Good morning guelph1,

      If tomorrow ends down I will probably start adding some long then. I’m more interested on how we open after the holiday.

  14. centsabletrader
    August 30, 2012

    I was expecting a low like ZZ. Lack of major selling makes me nervous. It is better to be late to a very large move than early to a whip saw. ZZ has good advise… a good week for fishing.
    Discipline begets prosperity.
    Prosperity not properly managed corrodes discipline.
    Discipline with its downfall takes with it prosperity.

  15. john
    August 30, 2012

    Do not let it get to you Anthony. I love the site and everyone who trades is 3 times 7 so are responsible for their trades, no one else.

  16. aiihotline
    August 30, 2012

    Anthony, ZZ,
    Very appreciate your time and work. Now I notice we are in an interesting juncture, Anthony you think 8/29-31 is the low and ZZ’s graph show possibly the high. Unless ZZ can elaborate his newest observation, otherwise, it would be 50/50 call since I could find some other technical evidences to support both bullish or bearish outcome. Of course we digest your info and make our own trading decision by ourselves. Thank you!

    • ZigZag
      August 30, 2012

      Hi alihotline,

      My thinking was Aug 30-31 would likely be a low and then another ramp into late September. I need to see some big selling in the next few days for me to be comfortable adding more long.

      I mentioned just prior to Aug 9th that we would not see any more big swings for a while. I should have taken my own advice and stayed out in my fishing boat 🙂

  17. pete55818
    August 30, 2012

    Anthony
    I appreciate all the work that you and Z.Z provide to this blog.

    Keep up the good work and tell those cry babies to make their own decisions in the market.

  18. Karen
    August 30, 2012

    Anthony, I just want to say that I love your site and your info. The people who give you an issue are the people who cannot take responsibility for their own trade, and most likely don’t do their own TA…and until they do, they will continue to lose money.

    I have paid for charts and cycle info and they are not right even 50% of the time…You have to do your own work. The only way someone could have all the answers, was if they had a time machine….so buck up people…risk management…

    Seems the cycle may have inverted…I too was expecting higher prices into the end of this week…looks like it may be delayed…SPX is trading pretty much sideways and yet we got a spike in the VIX, so I’m thinking the VIX is either trying to close the gap around 17.70 or it’s giving the market some room to head higher…

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 30, 2012

      Thanks Karen always glad to hear your input. Yes there are some expensive subscriptions out there, ive tried some of them, i like to see how other people calculate their cycles and the methods they use. They are very expensive and i found my work to be more accurate and reliable.

      I agree the VIX should close the gap around that price and the dollar has dropped too so i think its just given us room to move to the upside in equities.

  19. Anthony Tudela
    August 30, 2012

    Been taking heat because of my “bad call” for a move higher into 29/30 August which now is the LOW (S&P500 low around 1404).

    This trade was taken knowing the downside limit of the trade, therefore it was the correct trade to make after our 23/24 CIT (which was correct).

    It amazes me how judgmental people can be especially for a free blog. Perhaps if i charge a fee it might change a few perspectives. There are newsletters out there that charge upwards of $150 per month for less accurate CIT information.

    • Tim
      August 30, 2012

      Hi Anthony,

      No worries here, obviously the ones generating heat are unable to do their own home work. One thing is for certain on CIT days it is hard to forecast a top or bottom one must look the position of the market and make good sound judgement before exit or entry. You are doing a fine job.

      • Anthony Tudela
        August 30, 2012

        Thanks Tim we get over 3,000 readers per week, so weve got to be doing something right.

        Yes you are correct its relative to where the market is in relation to the CIT date.

    • ZigZag
      August 30, 2012

      No worries mate. That comment was likely from someone who was already upset from a UVXY trade gone bad and was looking to lash out at anyone nearby.

  20. Anthony Tudela
    August 29, 2012

    CIT today tomorrow people

    Rgds
    Anthony

    • Rezito
      August 30, 2012

      We’ve been going sideways in the last little while, so when you say change in trend are you saying we go up or down? Or maybe you’re assuming we’re currently in an uptrend (longer term) and we’re changing to down?

      • Anthony Tudela
        August 30, 2012

        Rezito

        We have been moving sideways to down. We will move up.

  21. francisrussia
    August 29, 2012

    Hi zz
    your newest View
    suppose Aug. 30th or Sep. 4th is high (long positions should sell)
    Do you think that the lows (buy long position) should appear in September?

    Which time points is your thinking?
    Thanks a lot!!

    • ZigZag
      August 29, 2012

      I don’t know for sure on that one. I can’t find anything other than those dates on the chart. We just have to wait and see what happens this week.

  22. Anthony Tudela
    August 28, 2012

    We are yet to meet upside price objectives therefore at worst we consolidate to slightly down. Still long.

    Dollar has gapped down, VIX at resistance and lower high, to me its clear.

    What is less clear is the timing, we need a lot of juice to run upto my price target by 29-30 August, could stretch to 04-05 September.

  23. steventrees
    August 28, 2012

    Tim: Do you change your mind? Is Aug 21 not top of 2012 any more?

    • Tim
      August 28, 2012

      Hi Steve,

      Let me say that this is one of the toughest calls in trading I have had to make in a long time considering whether 8/21 is a top or not. I suspect we trade sideways into Friday. Need to see a few more days of market action before I make a final decision. 3 scenarios here we could come back and double top, put in a lower top or even get a false break out. Could be wise to simply sit on the sidelines here.

  24. francisrussia
    August 28, 2012

    ZZ
    Do you think that the lower could be in SEP. 24-25th?
    by your chart?

    • ZigZag
      August 29, 2012

      Anything is possible so we have to just wait and see what the move is as we approach these dates. I’ve been following my correlation for over 3 years and it’s been the wrong bet to go against it.

      • Tim
        August 29, 2012

        Zig Zag,

        What do ya reckon here mate, up or down into the 31st? Am flat here now after this mornings run up do not really care to sit through a dull market with a position.

      • ZigZag
        August 29, 2012

        Yeah, real tough to call here Tim. The low date on the correlation chart is actually today, but everything aligns closer to the 30-31st. I’d be more comfortable seeing a big price move into this..

        This would have been a great week for me to go fishing 🙂

  25. Anthony Tudela
    August 28, 2012

    Me expectation is that any downside is now limited as we head into the symposium, any consolidation to down move will be limited to 1410-1390 range so initiating longs or holding longs is ok as we traverse up the slope, if the high does not eventuate in the next couple of days it is likely that we will form a consolidated low in this range before heading into new highs likely the 1st week of September

    Thanks
    Anthony.

  26. Tim
    August 28, 2012

    Covered shorts and went long here.

  27. Anthony Tudela
    August 28, 2012

    I think we will see the start of the move up today into the end of the week with a bear flag on the dollar and VIX at the downward sloping trend line. Apple is just front running the move here by melting up, more room to go.

  28. guelph1
    August 28, 2012

    thanks ZZ

  29. guelph1
    August 28, 2012

    hi ZZ
    your previous chart had Aug 28th low
    have you changed your timing to Aug 31st for a low?

  30. francisrussia
    August 28, 2012

    ZZ
    do you think the DOW will be move down until the end of this week?
    and wait for to get long position?

    • ZigZag
      August 28, 2012

      Yes, I think so. Still, it’s hard to say during a Presidential cycle in Aug.

  31. francisrussia
    August 28, 2012

    Hi ZZ
    What do you mean by this chart?
    I can not understand? when is lower should be BUY for long position and when is top should be sell off ?

    • ZigZag
      August 28, 2012

      Hi francisrussia,

      That chart is time only, not price. I’m waiting to see what the end of this week looks like before I do anything.

  32. francisrussia
    August 28, 2012

    ZZ,
    Do you think the US market Sep 4th will be top Sep 4th ?
    Do you think when will be top? and when will be lower in Sep.?

    • ZigZag
      August 28, 2012

      Yes, it could be the top for the year. However, the correlation shows a peak closer to the end of Sept and my guess is they will then sell it down until election day. After that, we likely make a choppy run back up into early January and then a major selloff into the first week of March. This could look like a big a-b-c pattern from Sept to March and A should equal C in price.

      This pattern from Sept to March is the opposite of what I was seeing last year when I told people to buy the end of last December and hold until mid March.

      Things can always change and we’ll know for sure as we get closer to the election.

  33. Karen
    August 27, 2012

    I am seeing a high into the Sept 6-8 turn date. ECB rate meeting on the 6th, and jobs on the 7th. Could be down into around the 15th….

    This week looks like mostly up into the end of the week….

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 27, 2012

      Thanks Karen

      Ive got the 4/5 Sep as a turn date.

  34. Anthony Tudela
    August 27, 2012

    Certainly making this interesting, trying to ignore the news and just stick with the CIT dates. The news is just bs anyway so ill just stick with what i know. I think market will move before this Jackson Hole party but again it comes down to which direction. Maybe rumours will push this market up. Anyway looking at 1435-1440 and a higher high, if lower high short into 1st week of September. Currently long, slightly underwater but stops in place should we head lower.

    Tim thanks also for your input. I think we could see AAPL here move markets much higher.

  35. ZigZag
    August 27, 2012

    Hello Anthony,

    If we hit one of those prices tomorrow or Tuesday I will try my first short of the year. I’m bored with fishing :-), so I might as well have a little fun while I wait for the end of Aug.

    A big drop into the end of this week and I will likely start buying.

    Good luck to you too mate 🙂

  36. ZigZag
    August 27, 2012

    SPX: 1,425 short..Below 1,404 short. 5 point stop.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 27, 2012

      Hey ZigZag, are you short or long below 1404? Interesting to see how this plays out could be a sell the news event if we gap up on Apple news, but then again i have a CIT date on 29/30 August. Good luck mate :)))

      • Tim
        August 27, 2012

        Hi Anthony,

        1413.5 is the .618 level between 1424.75 & 1395.25. 1418.25 is .786. Not sure what they want to do this week before the U.S. holiday next Monday, but an inside bar with a lower close on the weekly chart will not be a good sign for those who are long going into next week.

  37. steventrees
    August 26, 2012

    I see,
    so Aug 31 is low, Sep 25 will be top,
    otherwise Sep 25 will be low.

    • ZigZag
      August 26, 2012

      That is correct. My fingers are crossed that the correlation will work it’s magic for us again 🙂

      • aiihotline
        August 26, 2012

        Hm…so Anthony is looking for 8/29/30 as high and ZZ is looking for 8/31 as a low.
        Well, I have a “market map” saying positive thru 8/30-8/31, but sharp down afterwards. Just my input for your references. Thank you for all the inputs.

  38. steventrees
    August 26, 2012

    ZZ: I am a little confused, your chart show high to high and low to low, so Aug 31 will be top, and Sep 25 will be bottom, Is that correct?

    • ZigZag
      August 26, 2012

      Hi steventrees,

      They are are not price projections, only dates where price should reverse.

  39. ZigZag
    August 25, 2012

    Dates to keep an eye on.

    http://tinyurl.com/8m5ugk4

    These are equal distance time dates, not price. I do think there will be a good selloff into the November date.

    • Klaas
      August 25, 2012

      But first a new high into 25 Sept ,or a last yearhigh into 28 Aug ,right ? 🙂

      and my last question ….did you see my correlation chart from 1972 ?

      • ZigZag
        August 26, 2012

        Hi Klass,

        Yes, the correlation chart shows a peak on the 25th and possibly a double top in early Oct. Hard to say exactly what’s going to happen around the end of August, but I’m leaning towards that being a low. Whatever happens we should see reversals around those dates..

        I did see your 1972 correlation chart and that was the other time period I was looking at back in 2011.

  40. Anthony Tudela
    August 25, 2012

    PimaCanyon

    Todays CIT played out as expected. I have now moved my stop below todays low and ride this higher into next week 29-30 August, after that I think we will decline sharply into 04-06 Sep. These directions could change but as I keep saying if you trade the CIT’s you dont really need to worry about price.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 25, 2012

      Ps i am still slightly underwater on this trade but the correct thing to do is to move the stop to the low of the CIT date, at least thats how i do it. So we shall see what next week brings.

      • Tim
        August 25, 2012

        Hi All,

        Am not changing my stance here as 8/21 is in position to be a final top. We could move sideways to slightly higher the upcoming week which could give an opportunity to add to existing short positions. The daily chart is sloping from the 8/21 top left to right. Lower swing tops, lower swing bottoms. On a long term chart going back to 2000 we have formed a very large head and shoulders pattern on a monthly chart. Notice how the retracements since the 3/09 low have all over-lapped this is not the sign of a healthly bull market trend rather a Bear market rally.

      • pimacanyon
        August 28, 2012

        thanks, Anthony!

  41. pimacanyon
    August 25, 2012

    Anthony, so if today is CIT day and it plays out, market will head north. Next Friday is another CIT day, so you’re expecting market to head lower next Friday, after Big Ben speaks from the Hole?

  42. Anthony Tudela
    August 24, 2012

    Today should be our CIT into the end of the month.

  43. Anthony Tudela
    August 24, 2012

    Hey ZZ like your sitback patient style, must be all the fishing trips 🙂

    • ZigZag
      August 24, 2012

      Fishing trips, watching movies, yard work and plenty of beer 🙂

      • DoubleD
        August 24, 2012

        That speaks volumes! Time snipers, waiting to pull the trigger…holding…(hit the beach)…holding…(fix the plumbing)…steady…(take a nap)…BLAM BLAM.

        Anthony, ZigZag, Tim and everyone, Thank you for your time and imput.
        I’ve been following the discussions and it reafirms patience is one of the keys to successful trading.

        Have a good weekend!

  44. Anthony Tudela
    August 24, 2012

    InvestBB sorry to hear that.

    I can see those volatility ETFs declining maybe 20-30% more into September, given we are heading along an inflationary fuelled path there is no knowing how far this rally has left to run.

    Take it on the chin take the loss and start trading something else to be blunt. Being right more times than you are wrong still doesnt guarantee profits, managing your risk and preserving capital goes a long way to helping you keep them.

    Thanks
    Anthony

  45. investbb
    August 24, 2012

    Hi Anthony

    Yes, over at cyclicalanalysis playing with the etf.

    Thanks!

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 24, 2012

      Investbb, be careful with those products, time is your enemy.

      • investbb
        August 24, 2012

        Hi Anthony

        yes, time has been enemy for sure with those products…trying to get out alive on those product still….

        Any suggestion?

        Thanks!

  46. Anthony Tudela
    August 24, 2012

    Looks like were at support here, if it breaks next major support is 1390-1388 lining up with end of August as ZigZag is forecasting.

    However my analysis shows we have a CIT date today.

  47. Anthony Tudela
    August 24, 2012

    Karen 20-21st September not far off Zigs correlation chart.

  48. ZigZag
    August 24, 2012

    Posted these charts on the 17th.

    INDU: http://tinyurl.com/9q33jnm
    VIX: http://tinyurl.com/9k7mspq

    Okay, we can now see the INDU mid-point cycle chart nailed the last closing high and the VIX weekly chart hit it’s cycle low. Keep an eye on the end of August, which is likely to be a low imo.

    • investbb
      August 24, 2012

      Hi ZZ

      Would you consider adding to long then at the end of August? or you done adding long this year before already and just will wait for what to unfold?

      Thanks!

      • ZigZag
        August 24, 2012

        I will add more to my positions as long as we sell off into the end of Aug. If not, I will just wait for the next setup.

    • investbb
      August 24, 2012

      Hi ZZ

      wondering also about VIX, looking at your chart it looks like it multi year low here, do you think VIX will go lower for the rest of this year then?

      Thanks!

      • Anthony Tudela
        August 24, 2012

        Are you guys over at cyclicalmarketanalysis playing with triple leveraged ETFs?

      • ZigZag
        August 24, 2012

        I don’t know for sure on the VIX. I liked the alignment it was showing last week and I think it probably has another push higher coming.

  49. guelph1
    August 24, 2012

    wow, seams like a large disparity in opinion of where we go from here

  50. Anonymous
    August 24, 2012

    Did anyone else notice that the SPX barely pierced the fractal closing high from May 19, 2008 (1426.63) and immediately reversed downward. Possible massive double top or just a coincidence?

  51. ckorey
    August 24, 2012

    Well the ripper did not materialize so here we are on track for what I predicted for monday – tuesday . So far so good.

  52. Tim
    August 24, 2012

    Hi pindar,

    Am simply waiting and watching as this week is not over. Still remains to be seen if price & time will over balance a previous reaction here 1390-1387 is a very important level. I have Sept 4 +/- a day as an important time frame.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 24, 2012

      Thx Tim. I concur with that time frame

  53. Tim
    August 24, 2012

    Added to my short position in the night session @ 1417.75 one tick below the important support angle we broke on Tuesday. We now have a lower top in place on the daily chart.

  54. Klaas
    August 23, 2012

    Is this 1972 all over again ???

  55. Anthony Tudela
    August 23, 2012

    My new highs/new lows indicator indicating a big move up here.

  56. Anthony Tudela
    August 23, 2012

    Close out my short at a proft, flipping long into there is a CIT date today tomorrow could see us extend highs into end of August will update targets soon.

    If not there is the chance that the end of August date lines up with a low whcih means that the 03-05 Sep will be a decent high point for a decline into the Fed meeting.

  57. stevesteve121
    August 23, 2012

    ZigZag. thank you for the charts

    your cycle chart seemed to suggest Aug 30-31 bottom while the correlation chart says 25-27

    which in your experience, or drawing from your expertise would you say is more accurate? at least for the next bottom

    seems like your correlation date chart has never missed the bottom by more than 1day but an August 25 bottom is in 2 weeks and we are still less than 1% off 52 weeks highs….

    thank you

    • ZigZag
      August 23, 2012

      Hi Steve,

      I try to stick with my stuff first and use the correlation as a rough guide second. I really thought we had the Aug 9th top nailed because I had the same date as the correlation, plus I was seeing multiple points hitting on Aug 9th. I kind of figured this one could be difficult to call because of Aug during a Presidential cycle. Right now, the only date I’m able to find is Aug 30-31, so I’m sticking with that date and saying the correlation chart is likely off by a few days.

      I agree, some tops have been off a bit while most of the lows have been eerily accurate. I’m basically just sitting on my hands waiting to see what the end of Aug looks like before doing anything.

      • Karen
        August 24, 2012

        There are a couple of ECB meeting coming up on Sept 6th and Sept 19th. I have a turn date of Sept 6th as Anthony does, but do you see another around the 19th? Astro’s indicate that the end of Sept should be very negative….

      • ZigZag
        August 24, 2012

        Hi Karen,

        The 25th on the correlation is close to that Astro date and it’s possible it could hit early. I don’t think we’ll see any big crash like moves until after January imo..

  58. ckorey
    August 23, 2012

    If I’m right…………..we got our slightly higher high yesterday and now should move down into monday ish. I’m looking for 1365 – 1375.

    If I’m wrong………..we rip.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 23, 2012

      ckorey

      i think youre target is a little too low maybe 1388-1390

      • ckorey
        August 23, 2012

        Based on the futures it might be the ripper to new highs, if so then yes will only retrace to about 1390

  59. Anthony Tudela
    August 22, 2012

    Was looking at the TNA wave structure because its a lot clearer than SPY/SPX noticed that we have made a mini wave 3 high so we could come down into 24th for mini wave 4 completion and up into end of August early November for completion of the 5th wave, but again will just have to monitor this price action coming into time.

    The fact also that the dollar dropped so much could give it room to melt up which means some more equities bearishness for the next few days before it drops again causing equities to spurt higher.

    • Tim
      August 22, 2012

      Hi Anthony,

      To me it is quite simple here, if price & time over balance a previous reaction on this pull back look for the next rally to produce a lower top. If this does not occur look for the next rally to make a new high. Once Mars enters Scorpio on the 23rd things should start to become much clearer.

  60. Anthony Tudela
    August 22, 2012

    Tim, is that a price magnitude relationship or time relationship?

    • Tim
      August 22, 2012

      Anthony,

      This would include both a time & price magnitude which would indicate a low in October. Of course there would be your normal ABC swings.

  61. Rezito
    August 22, 2012

    I couldn’t resist but to go short today after the reversal off the highs. I’m short the Q’s from 68.23.

    I also sold half my stocks I was long, some miners and industrials.

  62. Tim
    August 22, 2012

    Technically speaking, today’s outside reversal bar should warrant some caution as to whether this is a final top. Market action will prove the rules on this reaction. We have broken an important timing angle in the middle of a geocosmic cluster zone. What to watch for around these CIT dates into the end of the month is whether the downside move starts to accelerate or finds support. Short today from 1423.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 22, 2012

      Good observations Tim and nice entry. This market has a way of making you cautious even with good entries and profitable positions. Will be interesting to watch the action, stops are in place so just sit back and relax. Wouldnt be surprised if we started down early doors and recovered to finish up for the day only to sell off into the end of the week. The 1400 level is interesting, lets see if it bases here for a catapult higher

      • Tim
        August 22, 2012

        Hi Anthony,

        The current decline could have a ratio relationship similiar to the decline from 4/02/12 to 6/04/12. The most reliable relationship is a 1×1 relationship.

  63. ckorey
    August 22, 2012

    Zig Zag,

    Thanks for posting that but am I missing something? The correlation shart shows a high on the 2-9th. It produced no high there?

    • ZigZag
      August 22, 2012

      Hi ckorey,

      It’s not perfect and has missed a couple peaks by a week or so since I posted it last year. It’s been a good guide on overall direction, and it’s helped me capture over 500 SPX points short and long since May 2011. June 5th to August 9th was good for 130 points, so I can’t complain too much about it missing Aug 9th. 🙂

  64. ZigZag
    August 22, 2012

    I’ve updated the mid-point chart showing probable dates that now align closely with the correlation dates. If it all goes according to plan then we should see a late Aug low and then a late Sept possibly early Oct high.

    Mid-point – http://tinyurl.com/8rhydu9

    Correlation – http://tinyurl.com/csp8g6a

  65. Anthony Tudela
    August 22, 2012

    Ive had brekkie now had a look at my charts (im in Australia so i wake up for the close) noticed that we have hit support and bounced at the close. We will raise my stop to the high of today for breakeven trade should the Fed minutes cause any upside surprises otherwise i think we are down into the end of the week we could test the 1390 area again but time is more important will just monitor price levels on the way down. There are a couple of CIT dates coming up 24, 29-31 August so the interesting this is whether we will get our low at the end of the week and a retest high at the end of August or whether we get continuation down into end of August which would line up with ZigZags charts. Im just going to let the profits run and see where we end up into the end of the week. Sleeping through the session helps too.

  66. johnrr
    August 22, 2012

    thanks for everything

  67. Anthony Tudela
    August 22, 2012

    Short filled @ 1425 perfect entry.

    • tesko99
      August 22, 2012

      Congratulations on timing the short so well….can’t say i did the same but I am learning.
      So what level are you looking to close your SPX short? Once closed, what level will you buy back in for your anticipated rise in September? Thanks.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 22, 2012

      Time, then price.

    • ZigZag
      August 22, 2012

      Excellent timing Anthony

  68. Jonathan Scott
    August 22, 2012

    Hi Anthony, I love this site by the way. Excellent posts and it’s among my favourites along with John Hampson’s Solar Cycles site. Markets have just surged to new highs here in Europe on the back of the US open. I can see many traders getting carried away with this but I’m actually selling some of my positions into this strength as I’m a little sceptical. I’m actually anticipating weaker prices this week – into the full moon – and maybe next week in order to load up more longs. Selling today may be a mistake but I’m sticking with my plan. Anyway, I’m hoping today end up being a ‘spike’ or ‘fakey’ as I like to call it before we roll back a little bit. I read that you also expected Monday or Tuesday to be a peak day… let’s see how this plays out.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 22, 2012

      G’day John glad to have you here. JH does a great job at amalgamating lost of info and his sunspot cycles are really interesting, i think he is showing continued inflation into 2013. Every time someone shares good info i just get so much feedback happening in my head and my list of studies just grows longer and longer lol. Thanks for sharing your insights.

  69. Anthony Tudela
    August 21, 2012

    If you are referring to COT reports be mindful of the delays. Often the moves will start when the commercials are actually decreasing their shorts as they already have their positions in play. Looks for spikes in open interest, higher open interest is bearish.

    i did some work a few years ago on open interest seasonality and cycle extraction produced some interesting results but nothing that my ordinary work didnt uncover, may be worth going back to readdress it at some point in the future.

    • Mike
      August 21, 2012

      I agreed. They are still building it (shorts) so it is interesting to see.

      • Anthony Tudela
        August 22, 2012

        Larry Williams wrote an entire book just on this one concept.

  70. Mike
    August 21, 2012

    Hi anthony,

    a pretty boring market since the july 24th low it seem. Anyway. the “smart money” commercial hedgers are extremely shorts. Of course it takes awhile to materialize so I am just waiting for that time. Look like all the longs are bidding up to jackson hole and qe3 announcement.

  71. Rezito
    August 21, 2012

    Just like every year the TV and retailers are looking for a spooky September. I don’t think they’ll get it. It’s going to be a down October most likely. I see a high by the end of September.

    I went short at 1400 but covered at 1406 when I saw the boring up churning market and went long. I’m taking ZZ approach of getting rid of some longs some time this week and waiting for the next buy opportunity. The uptrend is too strong for me to short. I think if we get a drop to 1380-1385 it would be bought.

    Thank you for your work Anthony and ZigZag

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 21, 2012

      Rez no problems, if we continue to get wall of worry news you know that the trend will be up, bad news on the way up sucks shorts dry for the impending drop.

      I know i havent posted any of the cycles lately because of the fact that the readings are all over the shop.

  72. Anthony Tudela
    August 21, 2012

    Hi Tim

    The psychology of the market is always very interesting, how sentiment can be calculated using put/call ratios, or other indicators is beyond me. Having said that i think we will get some kind of substantial sell off in September to scare the retail players only for the big boys to load up. i dotn have any long term magical forecasting tools ie the market will do this in 5 years i just ry to trade with the trend and apply time to changes in trend so price really becomes irrelevant. Im pretty sure Gann also said the same thing, price is irrelevant.

  73. Anthony Tudela
    August 21, 2012

    A top needs to have formed either yesterday or Tuesday then a decline into Friday/Monday before a retest high on 29/30 August. Istill believe similar to ZZ that we head higher into September.

    • Tim
      August 21, 2012

      Hi Anthony,

      Am on the same page here, going to be interesting to see how far back they want to bring the market back. Time is more important than price as the long term cycle does indicate a major top in 2013 provided we do not fall out of balance with the current trend. Best thing to do is, forget any thoughts on what you think the market should do and simply follow the charts. Higher tops & higher bottoms is trend up.

    • ckorey
      August 21, 2012

      My work is showing me the high was friday or maybe a slightly higher high tomorrow……………but over all down into the 30th.

      Now if I’m wrong…………..then I’m really wrong and we are going to get a blow off top that rips into the 24th – 30th

      • Anthony Tudela
        August 21, 2012

        Thanks ckorey

        i think the take away for today is dont be too overleveraged to the downside. We could just chew up more time into Friday before we head higher again, lets see what today brings, a gap up and ill short it.

  74. ZigZag
    August 21, 2012

    Hi pindar23,

    It shouldn’t change it all. There have been a couple of lows that didn’t work out on the way up from the October low and it still followed it higher. I’m patiently waiting to see what the end of August brings us..

  75. beetlejuice
    August 20, 2012

    Hmm,not sure if everyone is familiar with Eric Hadik but he has second week of August as a multi month high.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 20, 2012

      Hadik is wrong consistently, as his latest equities call has shown. I believe us to be the most accurate timers out there, direction is more of a problem 😉

  76. ZigZag
    August 20, 2012

    Locating the mid-point of a double bottom can be helpful in pinpointing highs and lows and I like to see more than one hitting at the same time. This one suggests a possible peak soon.

    http://tinyurl.com/99ap4wg

  77. jamesmarkii
    August 20, 2012

    spx 1500 before we see 1300 again

  78. steventrees
    August 19, 2012

    Thanks Anthony, it could be double bottom~

  79. steventrees
    August 19, 2012

    ZZ => lower in Aug 29~30
    Anthony => lower in Aug 24
    Interesting, we will see

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 19, 2012

      Steven i also have a CIT date for 29-30 it remains to be seen whether this will be a high or low a lot will be depend on where/if we find support and the magnitude of the decline.

  80. Anthony Tudela
    August 19, 2012

    A change in trend is now imminent this should result in weakness into Thursdays job report ending weaker and then a turnaround on Friday into the end of the month highs.

  81. Tim
    August 18, 2012

    Hi Anthony,

    Just curious here, what is the foundation of your analysis that supports such a move?

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 19, 2012

      I have a longer time cycle ending in late September

  82. Anthony Tudela
    August 18, 2012

    I believe we will head up into September at much higher prices. I wouldnt want to be short or over leveraged to the downside right now, maybe the odd nibble on a short come Monday into the end of the week, but after that load up on longs.

  83. Anonymous
    August 18, 2012

    Hi Anthony was wondering what your thoughts are on Sept and Oct?

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 18, 2012

      Big moves. But please get a wordress account, i wont ask again, in future ill ignore your questions. Please have the courtesy of abiding by our rules which are simple 1) A wordpress account 2) Courtesy to all other members

      Thanks
      Anthony

      • beetlejuice
        August 18, 2012

        As they say. Low volatility pathes the way to high volatility.The question is which way 😉

  84. Anthony Tudela
    August 17, 2012

    Closing out my short here will wait until Monday to reevaluate getting closer to a shorting opportunity before heading higher.

    • Tim
      August 18, 2012

      Hi Anthony,

      Time has balanced out very well on the charts today for a top. Simply my input here.

  85. ZigZag
    August 17, 2012

    The alignment on the VIX weekly looks like it’s close to a low.. It will be interesting to see if we can close the week on a red hollow candle. I have circled the previous red hollow candles on the chart. I rarely look at the VIX, just thought it looked interesting.

    http://tinyurl.com/ce7uquz

  86. Tim
    August 17, 2012

    Hi Anthony,

    Completed 100% of the previous range at today’s high with volume levels running similar to the Oct 2007 top. Could be some limited upside left but once it turns I expect a test of the 100 day moving average. Good Call.

  87. Anthony Tudela
    August 17, 2012

    Im expecting a change in trend Friday/Monday i have therefore initiated a small short position into 24-25.

    • Anonymous
      August 18, 2012

      How long will this change trend last?

  88. ZigZag
    August 17, 2012

    Hi Rezito,

    Pretty much all I’ve been doing is buying at every cycle low and selling some at the peaks. I did sell a bit on Aug 9th and now I’m just waiting to see what the end of Aug brings. The bigger trend has been up since the major cycle low last October so I’ve been reluctant to short anything during this run.

  89. investbb
    August 17, 2012

    Hi ZZ

    Do you see any change so far with your forecast of us going down into near end of of Aug, to day we made new high so far.

    Thanks!

    • ZigZag
      August 17, 2012

      No change in forecast. If you’re already long at one of my previous buy points just continue to hold and see what the end of Aug looks like.

      • Rezito
        August 17, 2012

        ZigZag

        Thanks for your input. I’m trying to get a better undrestanding of your approach. Do you only sell some at potential tops and buy the dips? Do you ever short? I’m assuming you’re not shorting these days because the bigger trend is up?

  90. Anthony Tudela
    August 16, 2012

    The Impulse System is suggesting that today is the day where we make a decisive move into 20 August time frame, my best guess is upwards.

  91. ZigZag
    August 16, 2012

    SPX cycle starting from my June 5th correlation low. http://tinyurl.com/9oplgtd

    If we’re still following my correlation chart the next low should be around Aug 29-30.

    • investbb
      August 16, 2012

      Hello ZZ

      Do you happen to have a target for this low?

      Thanks!

      • ZigZag
        August 16, 2012

        Hi investbb, I mostly follow time and I’m terrible with price targets…
        Perhaps back down to the bottom of the channel around 1,350.

    • Tim
      August 16, 2012

      ZigZag,

      I see how you have caclulated the forecast low for the 29-30 Aug, Just was wondering if you have ever used a calender day to trading day ratio in your forecasting?

      • ZigZag
        August 16, 2012

        Hi Tim,

        I only look at high and low cycles and use historical price patterns as a guide.

  92. Anonymous
    August 16, 2012

    Hi Anthony, was wondering if you anticipate a change in trend this Friday?

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 16, 2012

      Anon

      Please get a wordpress account.

      Monday to Tuesday, looking for S&P to test 1420-1430 first.

      • ckorey
        August 16, 2012

        1420 or 1320????

  93. Tim
    August 15, 2012

    Hi Anthony,

    The forecast here sees a multi-week decline from the current level that could possibly test the 100 day moving average before we move up and make new highs into 2013. Is this in your realm of a possability? Seems that September is going to be a very important month.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 15, 2012

      Hi Tim

      I think we will get our multi week decline into October when the yearly cycle low is due probably around the Fed meeting. We are in a period of inflation so it is likely that we will continue to get bad economic data and higher commodities and asset prices. If i look at a longer term chart since the 2007 top this is just one huge bear market rally in my opinion, so depends if we can make an assault on the all time highs, on the other hand this could be one very big right shoulder, or even the head. Forecasting longer term is not really something im very good at, i can postulate thats about it, its much easier in weekly time frames. What are your thoughts?

      • Tim
        August 15, 2012

        Anthony

        Thanks for your response, Did not want to come forth and tell the real story as I really see it but am glad you are straight to the point. I agree 100% with your assesment to take things a step further, out in time it is quite possible to see the March 2009 low come out, now I know none of us would want to actually see this commence but it is a very good possability. The Bond Market is telling us interest rates are going up in the future, based on the 60 year cycle it has completed. The grain markets are in huge bull markets that are due to run into 2013 with your normal seasonal retracements. Best advice I could give anyone who is actively trading is to follow the swing charts, use stops loss orders, and trade with the trend. .

  94. ZigZag
    August 15, 2012

    Investbb,

    I have a couple of forecasts that depend on what late Sept is going to look like. I don’t know for sure which one it is until we get closer. I’ll definitely post it as we get closer.

  95. ZigZag
    August 15, 2012

    Pindar13,

    Not seeing a low at the end of August might be a warning sign that something has changed.

  96. ZigZag
    August 15, 2012

    Anthony,

    I haven’t seen any of them invert yet, but it can happen. It’s been off by a number of days on a couple of highs, such as the May 8th peak, which actually started on May 1st. The lows have been pretty reliable so far.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 15, 2012

      Thanks ZZ, i think its important to remember, i have to keep reminding myself that the correlation chart is a time cycle and does not reflect the magnitude of price moves. At this point im definitely a buyer around 25-28 August.

      Im still expecting higher prices in the very short term then a swift pullback into that low date then a continuation upwards into September.

      Thanks Anthony

  97. investbb
    August 15, 2012

    Hi ZZ

    wondering if you have forecast on what happen after September that you can show us?

    Thanks!

  98. investbb
    August 15, 2012

    Hi ZZ

    Looking at your forecast, the entire September looks pretty bullish and new high looking likely, do you still have the same view point as of now?

    Thanks!

    • ZigZag
      August 15, 2012

      Yes, still sticking with the forecast into late September with new highs very likely. It’s worked very well this year and I see no reason yet why it shouldn’t continue.

      • Anthony Tudela
        August 15, 2012

        ZigZag thanks for your input. What are the chances of an inversion into September or late August. Have you experienced an inversion before with correlation charts?

  99. ZigZag
    August 15, 2012

    Pindar 13,

    If we do, I don’t think we go much beyond it. My guess is the momentum peak was the 9th and we’ll have a better entry to go long towards the end of Aug.

  100. Anonymous
    August 15, 2012

    Looks like there is no end in sight for this uptrend ? Do you see any correction coming anytime soon ?

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 15, 2012

      Anon read my comments I have stated when I will look to short.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 15, 2012

      Anon, please get a wordpress account, i wont ask again. It helps us to monitor users. Thanks Anthony

  101. investbb
    August 14, 2012

    Hi Anthony and ZZ

    wondering your guys take on today’s closing, it seem pretty strong near the end. Now how does the forecast go in term of direction for this week?

    Thanks!

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 14, 2012

      Hi Invest,

      It is possible that Tuesday/Wednesday we get a dip down to 1388 but we need to break support at 1395-1397 as we are currently climbing a wall of worry into 17-21 August which is when ill look for a short.

      Thanks
      Anthony

    • ZigZag
      August 15, 2012

      Hi investbb,

      I don’t see much happening to the upside and the odds are better to buy at the end of the month. The momentum peak was likely hit on Aug 9th and this week will probably end down.

  102. Anonymous
    August 14, 2012

    CIT- change in trend.

  103. João
    August 13, 2012

    Hi,
    What do you mean with “CIT day”?

    Thanks,

  104. Anthony Tudela
    August 13, 2012

    Yes i would although 13th-15th Feb is a window for a CIT. Most retail players are looking to short or ahve so already, in my opinion we need more downside to entice some more players in before we head up again.

  105. Anthony Tudela
    August 13, 2012

    I tend to find that the market will say one thing and then mean something else. Which is why having a plan is a good thing, another reason why i have outlined 2 scenarios and not “jumped on board” thinking the market will do only one thing.

  106. Tim
    August 12, 2012

    Am flat here and with good reason, nothing says this market is going higher as well nothing says we are headed lower. We shall receive an answer this week. Running up on light volume usually ends in despair.

    Key dates this week are the 14th-17th.

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 12, 2012

      I think we could end up going down into 13/14 at the 50% retracement around 1390 then pop up into 22-24 before getting a decent short opportunity.

      • Tim
        August 12, 2012

        Anthony,

        I tend to agree with you on this unless last weeks low at 1387.25 comes out then it will be time to re-evaluate. I prefer to let the market tell me what it is going to do rather than jump on board with an idea of what the market should do.

  107. Joseph LaRussa
    August 12, 2012

    Hi Anthony, Thank You for the Update because I’m a little nervous about next week. I did start to leverage into some Shorts on the close on Friday thinking Monday might be a blow-off top and then Down into August 15,16,& 17 New Moon. P.S. I have been really enjoying your Post and wish you could/would do it more offten. Thank You, Sincerely Josoph

    ________________________________

    • Anthony Tudela
      August 12, 2012

      Hi Joseph

      Thanks for the feedback. Ill post more upd ates as we progress this week.

      Anthony

  108. maxpwrs
    August 12, 2012

    Anthony,

    that is interesting. I know you may not care much about what the “Smart Money” does but they are massively shorts. Do you think they are wrong in this instance?

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