Change-In-Trend

with Anthony, ZigZag & Platy

Wall of Worry?

After meeting our upside objective of 142.42 in the SPY with a high of 143.09 on the 21 Aug we have been moving sideways in a consolidation pattern.  The technical take is that we have currently bounced off of strong support and are looking for a move higher, however the limit of that move up may well be limited to the prior high set on the 21 Aug. The chart below shows that we are in a channel moving up and we should now retest the previous high, however we are running out of time. The MasterCycle which is a new development has been outlined below in the projection, the red lines representing highs and the green lines representing lows, again i must stress that these are time cycles and not indicative of the magnitude of price movements. At the moment the market is hanging in the balance, as long as we stay above the mid channel i believe we could make the major high by mid September, however a move below the channel and i believe the MasterCycle scenario will play out into 17 Sep. I also have the following Solar CIT dates of 05 Sep and 12 Sep (+/- 1 Day) and ideally should my September high projection play out then the 05th will be a high and the 12th will be a low into the FOMC meeting.

 

Attached is a historical lookback at the MasterCycle, one cant really argue with its current accuracy. Again like all cycles it can invert and sometimes be overruled by more dominant cycles.

 

Advertisements

43 comments on “Wall of Worry?

  1. investbb
    September 8, 2012

    Hi Anthony

    Thanks for the replies.

    Have a good weekend all.

    Thanks! 🙂

  2. Anthony Tudela
    September 8, 2012

    Index futures. I’m not a buy and hold investor. Im a swinger.

  3. Anthony Tudela
    September 8, 2012

    No don’t touch them

    Anthony

  4. myuniversalworld
    September 8, 2012

    Interesting day’s action.

    Have a good weekend all.

  5. s77n
    September 8, 2012

    Hi Anthony and ZZ if you don’t mind me asking what vehicles do you use for shorting ?…hvu, uvxy

    Thx

    • investbb
      September 8, 2012

      I think these experts trade options. 🙂

      • s77n
        September 8, 2012

        Thx Ibb…Zig Zag must be gone fishing ; ) Have a nice weekend all!

      • Anthony Tudela
        September 8, 2012

        Never touched them. Too complicated.

  6. Anthony Tudela
    September 7, 2012

    1438 on my Australian dealing platform. Cashing in my chips.

    • myuniversalworld
      September 7, 2012

      Hi Anthony & Zig Zag, I am a recent new comer to your site and I really enjoy your analysis and the comments from your other followers. I also agree that the markets are getting very over stretched at these levels and feel that a decent correction at the very least is imminent.

      Anthony I noticed that you cashed out of your S&P at 1438, are you looking at taking some positions on the short side? I am myself slowing starting to build short positions.

      Looking forward to reading your updates and posts and learning more about the CIT and cycles. Keep up the great work.

      All the best

      • Anthony Tudela
        September 8, 2012

        Welcome.
        Not yet. Maybe a reduced position soon will post an update this weekend

        Anthony

    • investbb
      September 8, 2012

      Hi Anthony

      Congrats on the gain. Awesome job. 2 thumbs up. 🙂

      you going to treat us coffee now right? 🙂

      wondering what your next move?

      Thanks!

      • Anthony Tudela
        September 8, 2012

        Thanks Investbb

        Next move is wait. It’s going to get choppy. I don’t want to be short just yet. CITs to be updated this weekend.

  7. investbb
    September 7, 2012

    Thanks ZigZag for the reply

    Have a good day 🙂

    Thanks!

  8. investbb
    September 7, 2012

    Thank you Anthoney for the reply.

    Have a good day 🙂

    Thanks!

  9. Anthony Tudela
    September 7, 2012

    Ill be taking money off the table at 1438-1440. This is going to get very choppy coming into Sep 19-24 might be worth just banking our chips and sitting this one out when the target has been met.

    Im expecting that we close marginally higher today into our CIT on Monday/Tuesday.

    • investbb
      September 7, 2012

      Hi Anthony

      Would you consider getting into short position around or right after 19 to 24th then? to capture what ZZ show on his forecast going into November?

      Thanks!

    • lajani1074
      September 8, 2012

      NEW TO THE BLOG HEARD SOME GOOD THING….. ONE QUESTION ANTHONY WERE DO I FIND THE CHART YOU LAID OUT WERE IT SHOW WERE THE MARKET IS GOING TO MAKE IT’S TURNS. BE IT UP OR DOWN

  10. anroandre
    September 7, 2012

    Dear ZZ , from your chart, I resemble the rally from 2nd of december 2010 … do we have a chance to get to 1540 till the end of the year? Thank you!

  11. investbb
    September 7, 2012

    Hello ZigZag

    wondering if you think we go much higher than today’s high still in September?

    Thanks!

    • ZigZag
      September 7, 2012

      I’m not sure price wise, but the bias should continue to the upside into the Sept 18-25 window. We are close to fulfilling my expectation for this year and I’m still thinking this month could potentially be the top for the year.

      • investbb
        September 7, 2012

        Hi ZigZag

        Thanks for the responses. Curious to know if this is potentially the top for the year, looking for your forecast, it seems there is a sell of after beginning of Oct into November. Question is do you see this sell off to be intense and fast like what crisstoff show in his link above? Cause it looks like it hit around almost the same as June 5 from your chart. From crisstoff it looks worst >_<.

        Thanks!

      • ZigZag
        September 7, 2012

        Hi invest,

        I do believe we are getting closer to the top for this year. My investment strategy since Aug 2011 was to buy the dips at the cycles with my goal being new highs by this month.

        The correlation has us going back to the June lows, but it hasn’t always been that great at predicting price. Personally, I don’t think it will be as severe as what crisstoff shows. My guess is we will get close to the June low.

        Just remember, I am horrible when it comes to guessing price 🙂

  12. ZigZag
    September 7, 2012

    Look at this beautiful alignment I found this morning. It hit right on Anthony’s CIT.

    http://tinyurl.com/966pdm8

  13. mishka76
    September 7, 2012

    Great job guys. Thank you and long may it continue. Thanks to you and super “Mario”, banked 30 handles on the s&p

  14. ZigZag
    September 7, 2012

    If anyone went long on the 30th just put a stop around that area and then turn off your mind, relax and float downstream for a little while 🙂

    • ZigZag
      September 7, 2012

      Oops, I thought only the link would show above, not Lenon’s giant head. 🙂

  15. ZigZag
    September 7, 2012

    Good to hear that g1. Thanks!

  16. guelph1
    September 6, 2012

    Anthony & ZZ, thankyou for your kindness to share your expertise. You have saved me a bundle

  17. Anthony Tudela
    September 6, 2012

    I think we got our low for the 04/05 Sep. Which means we should be up into 10/11 Sep down into 15/16 Sep up into 20-22 Sep major high.

  18. guelph1
    September 5, 2012

    thanks Anthony

  19. Anthony Tudela
    September 5, 2012

    Hi Guelph we found support today and recovered the mid channel so we should be up. The Solar CIT for 05 Sep may well have come in a day early. Its possible that this choppiness will continue until early October. Will continue to monitor the price levels. There are often the hardest periods to trade as there is no defined direction so i need to look at resistance and support for price clues.

  20. guelph1
    September 5, 2012

    hi, another dumb question – sorry
    if today ends positive, would that suggest tomorrow’s CIT would be a change to negative, making mid Sep a low?
    thanks for any help
    G1

  21. stevesteve121
    September 4, 2012

    hi ZZ. I am quoting your comment from the last entry “I will likely be a buyer if we are down on Tuesday, however, I don’t see much upside left before a large selloff starts. If I am correct, then the next low will be around election day and then a seasonal push up to the first week of January. Our next major buy point could possibly not come until the end of March.”

    why do you not see much upside left despite what your correlation chart shows? up-up until late September?

    thanks for your hard work

    • ZigZag
      September 4, 2012

      Hi steve,

      I was trying to emphasize that the bigger picture is likely closer to a peak than a low. I’m not sure what kind of price move up there will be heading into this Sept 18-25 window. After being long since last August I’m more inclined to lock in some gains this month. For a quick trade, I still think buying on weakness will do well until Sept 18-25.

  22. Jonathan Scott
    September 4, 2012

    I tend to agree with ZigZag’s chart and I took a small SPX long position today and will look to add as we climb… if we do of course. On the daily (futures) chart, bearing in mind that today was a US holiday and that there was no trading, we have an inside bar at support. This of course is quite bullish although I am more cautious than normal. I’m looking to take another long at the break of Friday’s bar (the mother bar) and this may confirm momentum upwards. I’m targetting 1,450 but will look to take some money off the table at 1,440. If I’m wrong, then I get stopped out below 1,400. It’s all a matter of risk and reward as always.

    Even though I’m a price action trader, working mainly from the daily charts, I find the ‘time’ emphasis on here priceless for my trade planning. We’re talking about a CIT tomorrow and the daily chart suggests the same to me too. So that’s two sources of confluence for me making further upside in the short-term just a little more probable. It’s all about risk:reward folks so be sensible. You can’t hold bad trading decisions against Anthony and ZigZag!

    Anthony & ZigZag – You guys are doing amazing work here by the way. Keep it up. I love this site. Priceless!

    • Anthony Tudela
      September 4, 2012

      Jonathan great to have you here and thanks so much for the feedback.

      If we get a low on the 04/05 Sep i think my MasterCycle has inverted and we head up into mid to late September. Im also expecting resistance around 1440.

      Isnt 144 one of Ganns favourite numbers!!!

  23. ZigZag
    September 4, 2012

    Bringing this one over from previous post showing possible path after mid Sept..

    http://tinyurl.com/c859wda

  24. jamesmarkii
    September 3, 2012

    I was thinking a multi-year high top around (Spx 1500+) early November (elections) then a slide….that last all the way through 2013 (spx 666 retest lows)

Comments are closed.

Information

This entry was posted on September 3, 2012 by .

Blog Stats

  • 353,330 hits
Website Translation Widget
wordpress analytics
%d bloggers like this: