Change-In-Trend

with Anthony, ZigZag & Platy

Melt-Up?

It has been my expectation that this market is working its way up to an important high around the 3rd week of September. On Friday i banked my chips after the news that the ECB has initiated a bond purchasing program in order to stabilize the European region. Do i think there is more upside left in this. Yes i do, i think this market could reach as high as 1360-1370 by late September. So why have i taken chips off the table. Well i think that we are heading into a period of extreme volatility and whipsawing as we make our way up. Whilst i see the potential of further +pts maybe 20-30 pts i want to be on the correct side of this trade to the short side and sit out the Fed meeting shanningans.

The dollar chart below is already extremely oversold, however now we have broken the mid channel of the Andrews Pitchfork (posted weeks ago) there is the possibility for much further downside. The CIT time have been highlighted in blue 10-12 Sep and 19-21 Sep. I do expect a retest of the mid channel, its possible that news of QE3 at the Fed meeting sends the dollar back down again into the next CIT time frame which would coincide with an equities high in the same period.

 

I think that the dollar is showing that we could see further upside by early next week causing an S&P high in the region of 1450 a number a lot of other analysts are calling for. After this a decline into the Fed meeting and then a final pop to new highs. I may be tempted to take a pop at a short if we end up higher on Monday but for now as usual its wait and see, i also may be tempted to buy the close of the Fed meeting if its a down day. Its not going to be easy going into the meeting so i suggest if you have already made healthy profits from the run up to bank them. There are always other opportunities.

The S&P500 CIT dates for this week are

10/11 Sep & 12/13 Sep

So you can see why it is going to be a volatile week. After the fed meeting we should continue up into 19-21 Sep.

Have a great weekend

Anthony

 

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30 comments on “Melt-Up?

  1. Klaas Doornbosch
    September 11, 2012

    Ah thanks Anthony ..thats not my site but i find that a very interesting site for you and ZigZag because that guy / girl has the same dates

    • Anthony Tudela
      September 11, 2012

      Thanks Klaas looks like sun spot cycle with lunar periodicity factored in lol

  2. Jonathan Scott
    September 11, 2012

    I’ve got my eye on price action this week and looking out for an S&P low of 1,420-1,423 into the end of the week. I guess it’s possible that previous resistance will act as a new support level but nothing’s for certain. But the 1,420 on the S&P could be a decent entry with a tight’ish stop.

    • Anthony Tudela
      September 11, 2012

      G’day Jon

      Im looking a little lower 1415-1417 🙂

      • Jonathan Scott
        September 11, 2012

        Thanks Anthony. Good to know. 1,420 is a key level for me but rejection of the levels you discussed would reinforce my appetite for a long. But I would want to see rejection of 1,415 before going long. Let’s see what unfolds this week. Markets look set to open lower on Tuesday.

  3. Klaas Doornbosch
    September 11, 2012

    I am from the Netherlands so my english is not so good 🙂
    I posted a few times here but many times i get an error sending some stuff.
    I was first on Cyclical market Analyses and i followed Zigzag to here 🙂
    20 years trading ,first years made good profit and then looses all .Since i follow Zigzag ,and use it with my own system (marketprofile) and formations like the Wolfwave i make a good profit .i used software Ensign for it
    Every time i put my name to a chat KLAAS i get an answer with KLASS whahahaha

    • Anthony Tudela
      September 11, 2012

      Klaas Welcome

      I think its because you kept posting links to your site which WordPress saw as spam.

  4. Anthony Tudela
    September 11, 2012

    Dollar found support today, higher dollar prices expected over the next couple of days which meant Friday was our CIT and high. Equities weakness should continue into 12/13 Sep. A large down day today and i believe our low will be in BEFORE the FOMC meeting, lets see how she plays out.

  5. Klaas Doornbosch
    September 11, 2012

    Low on CIT ?

    • Anthony Tudela
      September 11, 2012

      Klass as a first time poster please provide some background info on yourself and a courteous hello

      Anthony

  6. Pingback: Gold Update « Change-In-Trend

  7. zirkul
    September 10, 2012

    Oh cit for this week: 10/11 &12/13
    Also every day.
    Perfect

    • Anthony Tudela
      September 10, 2012

      Zirkul

      I suggest you stay out of the market this week. There are too many CIT clusters. I exited my long on Friday at 1438, will monitor support resistance for the next true break into the next CIT

      Anthony

  8. Anthony Tudela
    September 10, 2012

    Bingo bango ZZ

  9. lajani1074
    September 10, 2012

    I GET IT TKS.

  10. Anthony Tudela
    September 9, 2012

    ZigZag

    Are you seeing any symmetry around 04/05 October?

    Cheers
    Anthony

    • lajani1074
      September 10, 2012

      HI ANTHONY IM NEW TO CHANGE IN TREND. CIT I SEE YOU MENTIONED IT A FEW TIMES CAN YOU TELL ME WHAT IT MEANS THANKS

      • s77n
        September 10, 2012

        Lajani,

        CIT= Change In Trend…get it? Uptrend or downtrend …bear or bull

    • ZigZag
      September 10, 2012

      Hi Anthony,

      I couldn’t find any alignments for those dates, but that doesn’t mean something can’t form as we move forward. I’ll keep an eye out for it.

      • Anthony Tudela
        September 10, 2012

        Thanks mate, im looking at a potential low after September high in this period.

      • ZigZag
        September 10, 2012

        I went and looked at the correlation scanning for some dates and found Oct 4th.

        http://tinyurl.com/8wvxysl

  11. Anthony Tudela
    September 9, 2012

    Pindar

    i do have a target although i think it wont be as dramatic as some people will believe.

  12. Charlie (@Charlie03582700)
    September 9, 2012

    Hi all,

    For me the best scenario would be, the market completes a top on the 12th around 1461-1462. This would be 180 degrees in time and approximately 90 degrees in price from the March 2009 low. But as you say Anthony things could be very volatile the next few days. Going to be interesting how this plays out.

    • Anthony Tudela
      September 9, 2012

      HI Charlie,

      thanks for your input. Unlikely though because the dollar is so oversold, we’ll likely get early weakness this week into FOMC forming another dollar bear flag IMO, then upto my major target highs.

  13. Anthony Tudela
    September 9, 2012

    Lajani

    What is the name of this blog?

  14. ckorey
    September 9, 2012

    Nice work Anthony.

    Looking for a low on the 12th – 14th and a high on the 19th – 22nd myself.

    • ckorey
      September 9, 2012

      PS; I could also be the inverse where we have a high 12-14th and a low on the 19th – 22nd but looking for the first scenario to play out.

      • lajani1074
        September 9, 2012

        HI IM NEW TO THE BLOG. CAN YOU TELL ME WHAT CIT IS THANKYOU

  15. aiihotline
    September 8, 2012

    Anthony,
    Thank you! Have a nice weekend!

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