W/E 07 Oct 2012
You can see how price has continually respected the upwards sloping channel previously posted. So far we have had 6 tests of this channel and a rebound to higher prices. The last 4 closes have also been trading in a steeper upwards channel which may offer some indication as to the target. However we are yet to break through the 1460 region on the last 2 attempts we have failed. If we fail again this time i will initiate a short position.
A decisive break of the upwards sloping bottom pitchfork would suggest that the sell off has begun.
312 comments on “W/E 07 Oct 2012”
Change-In-Trend 
Anthony, you mentioned a collapsing low on Oct 9 before, which seems to rhyme with what Karen’s chart is showing….also how is one to interpret the Dollar CIT on Sep 29 and Oct 5 since 29 was not the actual low but we saw a lower low and then bounce on 5th? Do you think Oct 28 will be the top for dollar which kind of rhymes with the low for metals on the same day?
hello everyone. just like to say thank you for another great week.. you all have a great weekend!!!
Anthony, if your roadmap chart comes true, we will be at 1325 SPX cash by 10/24 or so without any stops/large bounces in between. Am I interpreting it right?
A little stats for you folks, Mondays have been down 10 of last 12 ! So statistically, the decline continues…..but in reality who knows
Have a great weekend all
SPX weekly…closing price contained below upper bollinger band (100,2) currently at 1462.69…pink/blue oscillator continues to hang by a very thin thread…important to note that the SPX daily did not signal a sell…enjoy the weekend…
rotrot
October 5, 2012
SPX weekly…
Long /nq 2801, stop below today’s low. 3:46pm
Edit: Stop moved to breakeven. 4pm
So you just went long before the close? Do you see next week as negative like Anthony does?
ZZ’s top is Tuesday, and I am quite bullish. Probably shouldn’t have put that in at EOD like that though – forgot it was Friday!
I see that Apple looked to complete 5 waves down in this latest wave, and SPX completed an abc down today, so they both look like they completed a wave structure at the same time…on top of that the VIX bounced on this move down, so it has room on the downside should we get a bounce next week…I am expecting a bounce as well next week Platy….I believe the Jupiter aspect is still in play here….
Although, I just want to make one caveat, XIV looks like it needs another leg down, so I would not rule out a little more down before a bounce….if that is the case, we could be getting the 5th wave down for SPX on monday (intraday move), which would lead me to believe the bounce we get afterwards would have more chances of being a lower high….
If we open higher and continue to go higher then, a new high is possible…
Out with small profit on expectation of a lower low.
Thanks Michael. Always nice to feel appreciated.:)
With the quality of the timing and work that goes into this site it is inevitable that we move over to a paid subscription.
People can either join us or not, either way we’ll keep churning out high quality calls that you wont find anywhere else.
You cant please everyone but we try our best an
You wouldn’t consider a donation type membership eh. Thats too bad, but I respect whatever direction you take this.
compx high 3171.46 (predicted 3171-3173) and es high 1466 (predicted 1467-69) is especially interesting as it these are planetary prices for today’s Merc 0 Sat 120 Ceres transit.
correction: made a miscalculation. the planetary price for es for today for that transit = 1466.5. yikes.
Very interesting!
Been going over all my charts……….big move coming next 7-10 days. If Anthony is right it’s to the downside.
Been going over all my charts……………big move coming next 7-10 days. If Anthony is right it’s to the downside.
anthony, please fix the sequence of the blog and each and every post should have date and time on it. this is very important for any successful blog. it is really difficult to navigate for new comments as we dont know where to go.
thanks
Phantom, Just scroll down to page and navigate through recent comment section…you will be ok..
just bought spy 0ct 145 puts @$68
There is some very negative divergence in gold. Buying DUST
the comment section seems to be acting up today, the new posts are not at the bottom but all over the place which makes it really hard to know which is new and which is old. Is there a way to fix this?
Curiousmind – I just go way at the bottom under “recent comments” to see if anybody new had just posted, click on it & it’ll bring u to that latest post, easier than scrolling through the page. Do that until it’s fixed.
Thanks Quy for the help on “recent comments”, I too was having a hard time finding a way to reply to someone’s post…Looking at the dollar is great, but also pay attention to the VIX, we are now at support. The last time we were here was on 9/14 and before that was 8/17 where we saw a pullback, but then one last push up to a higher high on 8/21 (2 TD’s later), so bulls beware….we could pullback and then attempt to make a higher high, but I will be watching the VIX, I want to see it hold this trend line around 13.64….
Karen,
What is current VIX price and how far it is from 13.64? 13.64 is multi year low?
Thanks
VIX hit a low of 13.67 today….currently sitting around 14.14. There is a multi year trendline support at around 13.30 that has timed tops since 2007. Since then, it has not broken this trendline support…so it is significant to watch…
Quy, looking at Anthony’s comments, he’s very sure of today being a top and i can’t remember when he was so sure so I wouldn’t go against him here, I’m already in a breakeven trade from 1470 so far, so lets see, if it keeps falling, ill add more
I also have to say, this has not been a good year for astro, even the great Merriman and Crawford have got it wrong this year, so if Anthony is contra – astro, i’m going with him 🙂
Goodluck mate
You’re right Michael, nobody’s right 100% of the time, but I do love the fact that we have all different views here now, where it seemed one sided for a while. Different views keep you on your toes, make you honor your stops. I do agree with a pullback here. Like I mentioned, I already sold SPX this morning because of that, but I view the pullbacks as minor & will put $ to work, until UUP proves to me otherwise. Trust me, once I know I’m wrong, my stops will get me out, I’m not going to give back what I made the past week.
I hear you Q ! btw welldone for your brave trade last week, you survived all the crazy choppiness
Bought PSQ, DOG and shorted AAPL and GS at the open. Tight stops on GS and AAPL, but will hold and add to DOG and PSQ next week if need be.
For anyone interested, I just bought more SLV, it almost touched its 10 day moving average minutes ago. I think it should break above 34 next few weeks, possibly to 36. My stop at 33.25
Just oil right now and a small silver short.
SB & SS76 – Like ZZ, I’m not good at prices. All I know is UUP cycle tells me the dollar may not bottom for another 2 weeks, so tough for me to be bearish the next 2 weeks. Like I mentioned to Platy, my best guess is since SPX is close to the 1474 it reached mid Sep., there could be a minor pullback to form a small handle, but it could resume back up afterward. I sold this morning, will put $ back to work slowly during any pullback. Always put your stops in, nobody is right 100% of the time.
Thanks Q.
If we look at the dollar CITs of 29 September and 4 October you will notice that the USD chart posted a high on the 1 Oct and a low on the 5 Oct both 1 day later than the CIT dates. Therefore we can assume that the SPX high is in. I arrived a day early and sold into the move up starting on 4 Oct. Prior to that i had bought on the 1st and took about 14pts profit on the way up.
From a weekly perspective we have just completed a wave 2 up. Therefore we should not breach the prior high on 14 Sep and move down into at least early November. Risk assets had already begun their decline and are likely to continue to move down with equities.
My roadmap has been clear about my time expectations. I have been rattling on about this high for weeks. Now we head down. It will be choppy but i believe we will head under 1400, the astro gurus will disagree with me on this one. But at this stage i dare not fade the roadmap when it has been so accurate in the past. Time trumps technicals.
Edit: Just looking at the charts this morning it appears that we could have a bounce higher on Monday to around 1461 on the eminis. This is all part of the volatile move down however so will just have to weather the storm.
Target to the downside is 1433 (S&P cash), 143 (SPY)
Great summary, great work ! Thank you. Have a great weekend
Thank you for the update. WIll you please provide a picof your forecast chart? Will be much appreciated. Great works on this forum A Z P !
Looking like lower high is in. I’m short SPX, lets see
Stockboom – Open QE won’t work in bringing unemployment down, just like those other QEs. All it’ll do is pumping money into risk assets (especially metals), destroying the dollar, that’s why I’m still very skeptical about any major SPX pullback. Anyone with a 3 year investment horizon, could triple their money in metals in 3 yrs.
but you missing that even other QE’s have not create inflation, we are far far away from hyper inflation….
SB – Oh, but just wait, oil just put in its intermediate cycle bottom. Once it goes up, the economy will take a beating like it did in ’08, there u’ll see inflation. That’s another reason I’m not bearish, with oil bottoming, it’s tough for SPX to pull back much.
i think they want to have th high of 14 sept. There are a lot of shorts to hurt.
I think they have hurt enough shorts already.
just my 2 cents and observation ….i have 11/1/2012 as a cit and we all know its US Presidental election time ….as above so below ..and looking at the heavens …i see 11/1/2012 venus opposition uranus 2 days later on 11/3/2012 venus squares pluto….going back in time similar aspects occured….9/17/2011 venus opposition uranus the next day 9/18/2011 venus square pluto…….going back 8/7/2010 venus opposition uranus 2 days later venus square pluto … what followed after this aspects …..draw your own conclusions ……since i trade spy options all i need is a $2.00 move up or down to double my investment …..if you can trade this up
comming aspect and all technicals line up …..$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$..keep up the good work cheers GOD BLESS .
Anthony, ZZ, Platy or anyone, someone!
So now we are so close to Oct 9th ( due to long weekend) can we say that today or tuesday will be top and then down road from there till NOV?
I think down road from here to November that is almost two months, I know there will be zigzag( not you ZZ :)) but still looks to me too long to sustain when Obama wants people to think positive before election….
Thank you
Long weekend? Are the markets closed Monday?
Sorry for Canada, not sure about USA…and why my comment didn’t show last? anyone please fix the time…so Platy you think if market is open in USA then we have one more day before Oct 9th to go higher….
One more question and are you seeing opportunity to short S&P at 1470? or do you see it will try to make 1485 again….
Correct.
Market is open on Monday, only the bond market is closed.
Hi Sb,
I plan to start shorting this morning and will add if we’re up on Monday and Tuesday. I have some cycles on the weekly that are hitting today..
The market is open on Monday I believe, only the bond market is closed.
Stockboom – Since you asked for “anyone”, I thought I’d chime in. I think these turn dates are good, but you have to have something else to confirm them. I’ve been bullish here since Wed. low of last week & I posted stating that, but everyone here ignored it. Just look at UUP as a confirmation, that’s the dollar index, if it keeps going down, then all markets will head up. I track UUP cycle and its low is not due until a couple of more weeks, that means markets could still continue up from here. I may have offended some people with my view, but all I want is just to offer another view. I think people underestimate the power of this “open QE”, which means the Fed can pump money in the system ANYTIME they want.
10-4 kemosabe 🙂
Thank you ZZ, Quyn
One thing I would like we should discuss on this board is what Open QE means and what is the roadmap after election…is it possible that FED can come up with guideline, let’s say if unemployment reach 7% then we will stop open QE…or something else another indicator or target….how market will react to those guidelines….
Open QE will not stop until the currency is completely destroyed IMO.
Q you have been spot on.
Thanks Platy. I was hoping you’d follow me for this ride up, since you were the only one opened to my view. I think now that SPX has gotten close to the 1474 reached mid Sep., it could pull back a bit to form a small handle early next week, but be careful about shorting, it could resume right back up after that handle.
Like Anthony said earlier this week, I have a much more bullish outlook than him or ZZ. I tend to lean toward your thinking. Really appreciate your input.
Quyn and Platy,
What is the low you think you would go long on this brief downleg? S&P
and what is your target for S&P on long side?
Thank you
My guess, for what its worth, is 1350
SS76, I don’t think Platy or Quyn is looking for that low, I would assume more in 1440 level before they go long…am I right here Quyn? Platy?
1450.
Not true, Q.mi don’t post much, mostly just read, but I have leaned towards believing those who are more bullish simply b/c it seems as tho that is the trend for now. When that breaks is anyone’s guess. I bought XIV low &17s and sold.
Alright Andrea, another comrade, & kudos to the silent ones out there.
“Quy” there were other bullish views here other than yours, from other people on the blog, such as ganman. I for one wrote:
“Looks like we have a Sun Jupiter trine on the 9th, so looks like there is a possibility that we could make a new high somewhere between the 9-15th, looking more like around the 10/11th. Merriman confirms a possibility… “And finally we have a somewhat important planetary station arising on October 4, when Jupiter turns retrograde. It is still possible that stock markets advance once more to a new cycle high within a week of this occurrence.” I will not take this lightly…he has a lot of great insight…”
“Sun/Jupiter trines are very positive….the market can run up a week or two into this aspect…”
I just wish I had stuck with my convictions…. 😦 i don’t think this is as much QE as it is time, price, cycles and astro’s….
Karen – You’re right. I think I did acknowledge & agreed with your view when you posted, so great, I’m not alone after all.
You and GM have made some great calls here Karen.
Thanks Platy! What do you think of Silver….got a big turn date on the 12th…I’m thinking a smack down…what are your thoughts?
I have a COT chart on silver that says smart money is bearish, just as in Feb 2012 before a big correction…I don’t think we will see that kind of correction, but they are bearish nonetheless…
Interesting, thanks! I have a small short position planning to hold until the Jupiter-Mars opposition at the end of the month. I don’t dare risking more than just a nibble though. It’s more of a reminder to myself not to go back long for a while.
important resistance at 1464 (es) and 3165 (compx) – should at least pause here
higher resistance:
spx: 1467 -69, 1479, 1483
compx: 3171 -3173, 3186, 3193
off to the races …employment numbers good as per say…. high in to the trine now …..so my understanding would be ……we r still currently under a cit 10/5/2012 thru 10/8/2012…any market going up in to this cit will make a crest and then reverse or vice versa …..looking at the aspects and current situation we r making a high from which we should soon reverse next week so the cit of 10/9/2012 is a very high probability low risk trade…$$$$$$$….lets see where we close today……
Thanks Gannman.
Pretty sure today will be our high.
Thanks
Anthony
Welldone Anthony, you certainly nailed this high. From your comments, you were so certain, so I’m glad I followed you on this one.
Question is when you say it’s the high, is it till next week or for the month ?
By the way, as you are not charging for this site, why not put a little donation tab on the blog so we can express our gratitude to you ?
Thank you so much
Michael
+1 Michael. I would be much more inclined to donate than pay for this.
Anthony,
With the run up today, I decided to buy some nov puts on qqq and spy. If the roadmap plays out, these options should perform fairly well. Still waiting for the nov lows to deploy my 401K again. I bought some vix puts for protection just in case this does not play out.
I think this market could go as high as 1473 (cash) before pulling back so manage your risk. Will add more shorts if we reach these levels.
Short /es 1457.75, 78.6% retracement. 10:15pm.
Stopped out 1459.
Yes im currently short and also under on my position.
But i have a time snorkel. I got in yesterday in case the CIT came a day early.
Anthony…like your style…clear, concise, easily understood…
thanks rotrot. Not everyone thinks so. :s
What do you guys think about the dollar? It has made a lower low than Sep 29 which was supposed to be a dollar bottom?? I guess my understanding of CIT is still very limited…gold and silver still looking very bullish…
Something’s messed up with the time zones. Aussie’s posts get put to the bottom.
I posted what I think a little bit ago. Will probably wait for Anthony’s input before making a move, unless /nq 2804 hits which I will probably bite (maybe even 2808). I still have tomorrow as another potential turn date (Nasdaq) and would love that to be a bottom.
anyone trading oil cit is oct 5-8 oil might move higher in to sun trine neptune 10/16/2012………..use stops
Thank you GM, love your analyses.
i always check weekly chart to see how much has been gained or lost hi/lo will tell u if bulls or bears in control …just an old habit
i meant double top on gold
gannman, are you still in DUST?
got stopped out of dust …but will look to re-enter once indicators confirm on weekly chart
i also meant helio mercury thru sag
gold cit oct 5-8 imp crest but with helio mercury thru oct 1-12 …will take it higher …double ….mercury will loose steam once its thru half the distance if tech agree then will trade gold
just my 2 cents …markets refusal to sell in to the last hour would mean bulls in control and employment situation numbers ….good also bear in mind we still have sun trine jupiter and venus trine pluto on 10/9/2012 with mars trine uranus and a new moon 10/15/2012 ….follow the trend with stops mars aspects is high energy …no negative aspects until venus squares jupiter 10/16/2012……PLEASE USE STOPS….thanks a million keep up the good work
and Sat trine Nep on 10/16. EDCOT suggests higher into 3rd week of October. 10/16 Sat trine Nep price = 1479. Higher resistance on that date at 1483, 1489 to 1493, 1502 and 1505. fwiw.
Thank you GM & Peggy 🙂
I got out /es breakeven finally, 2:54pm. Just bounced around my buy-in price all day and I could not get a good stop in.
Looking at the Nadsaq, it has fulfilled my requirement to re-test the breakout area last week, and it put in a double bottom on Tuesday, my most likely turn date in my October 2-5 window. And the dollar has broken out of its channel and looks very weak. So I’ll be looking for a minor pull-back in /nq to get long.
Platy – My take is things will close at the high today, then it’ll gap up tomorrow once the employment report is out of the way, leaving people behind, unless they chase.
Thanks Q 🙂
AAPL is not bullish…
rotrot
September 30, 2012
AAPL…significant negative divergence between price (although it is not shown it was higher recently then it was in the spring) and the weekly trend indicator (orange/blue) which has turned down…histogram (gold) is negative…pivot (green) signaled a sell…two cycle indicators (blue and pink) are negative…good luck with your trading…
AAPL daily signaled a sell…
ZZ:If you are positive the next top will be lower than 9/14 top,I think we almost there, maybe tomorrow.
Wouldn’t surprise me Steven. I definitely have been off a bit on this last one.
ZZ, do you think then perhaps since you figured today was the low, and I really doubt tomorrows job report will be disappointing with the election around the corner, that perhaps today was just a minor peak, with the rally extending into the 9th capping out around 1475?
That’s very possible SS76. Just have to wait and see what happens next week..I’m a time junkie and don’t know what price we’ll hit by then, but we do know that the biggest drop in price on the correlation didn’t happen until after the 9th. I will probably begin to start building a short here starting tomorrow.
I love the first 22 seconds of this song 🙂 http://tinyurl.com/5sr3ywf
LOL
good morning ZZ,
do you still think we will see a low today, than head up from here for a few days?
thanks
Good morning guelph1,
Hard to say what we do between now and around the 9th. Anthony was correct and it’s looking like today could be a peak. My cycles are hitting today, and this is when we see a good chance of a reversal in price. The correlation has us drifting a bit higher towards the 9th, so we have to watch for that still.
The correlation had today as a low and that’s why I was thinking low. Most of my focus is around the 9th anyway and I don’t think we’ll see the market above the September high before then. I still see plenty of potential danger ahead.
thanks ZZ
I am short here
I wouldn’t be too bearish here, everything’s lined up to make new highs next week, with a possible dollar plunge into its intermediate cycle low next week.
Yeah I’m pretty cautious on this one. But the dollar should at least come back to test the lower channel at around 79.8 I think.
The thing is Platy, the dollar has known to plunge into its intermediate cycle low in the past, so I think it’ll do it again. This last plunge will drive everything else higher, to suck people in. I’ve got my stops in just in case though.
Good plan Q
Thanks, Anthony, the road map, is your´s or zig zag´s
Mine, thanks.
support/resistance for today:
compx: 3171-72, 3165, 3150-51, 3142, 3137, 3123, 3121, 3118, 3109
spx: 1471, 1467, 1464, 1454.5, 1448, 1445, 1435-36, 1433, 1426
Hi,
SInce Anthony is now bearish into November, ZigZag is not bearish into November until Oct 9th+- and I’m not sure where Platy sits; is it reasonable to assume all 3 of you will align again around Oct 9th to be bearish into November based on yours systems? Thanks.
Well, I think Anthony is right here, the low happened a couple days ago and today looks to be the high……with perhaps tomorrow being another low. Perhaps a good exit of your shorts will be tomorrow, and the next high to short will be around the 9th….
I’m undecided. 🙂 I’d like to see a higher high on SPX to go short.
Ok that’s good. I shorted /es at 1455. 10:08 am
No wonder Terry disappeared for a while, May Peace with Terry Laundry and his family, I still appreciate his efforts, God bless~
Guys i think its on. Get out of the water. (Go short)
2:51 Thursday (EDT) – Time in New York, NY, USA
Do you mean short here or do you mean get out of yout short ???
I am dutch so i am stupid i think 🙂
thanks
Klaas
He means go short. You’re not stupid, it was confusing. Anthony, listen to your wife!
Short 1450 emini
Short 1455 SPX cash CFD
Smaller position, will add.
1:53 Thursday (EDT) – Time in New York, NY, USA
Anthony what price level are you looking to enter shorts?
On the EMini that is
1455 there or thereabouts. 7.5pt stop.
Bit more risk with this one but done well this week so its within limits.
ZZ:did you learn from Terry Laundry’s methods? but he was so wrong on stock markets from last October to this year, he used to offer free video weekly, now quit~
Terry passed away this year.
Im always doing this foot in mouth thing.
God bless you Terry Laundry and your pink pants. Rest In Peace.
I think he posted above he’s short already @ 1450 ?
Correct i am short.
I am fairly confident that we will reverse between here and 1465 on the cash market.
SPX weekly…
allerotrotp
Great chart thanks for the update 🙂
Pindar i am already short. As long as your stop is just above 14 Sep high you should be ok.
Im pretty confident that today Friday 05 Oct is the high.
If I understand correctly, you have today as the high and the market should decline into Nov, but what do you think will be the significance of Oct 9 like ZZ mention? maybe a double top?
Correct, maybe a collapsing low.
you mean collapsing low on Oct 9?
Yes Curious. Lets see if we can get this top first.
Man, I’m short here, actually was short yesterday via HVU at $8.14 and I know you don’t trade that, however if the market does what you are suggesting, and sells off, HVU will probably predict this either today or Tuesday…thinking this afternoon. I hope.
Hmmm, SPX hanging out under 1467 resistance…..
I think we have a CIT folks, appears to be a reversal…..Anthony you may have nailed this to be the high today. Whats next?
What does “collapsing low” mean? I’ve never heard this term before. Sounds like dropping to support levels and then crashing thru it?
Sad to report that he passed away. I think his team is continuing his work.
Hi Steven,
No, my work is not based on Terry’s methods. I don’t even think Terry did his own T’s correctly most of the time 🙂
Over the long run politics doesn’t influence stock prices but I think who ever “looked” good from tonight’s debate will probably have some effect on the market for the next day or so
Closed out long 1451.10
7pts profit. Sitting tight.
21:43 Wednesday (EDT) – Time in New York, NY, USA
zig Zag, Antony and platy, the chart i´m talking about refers the sequence between dates and sp500 from 3/01/12 to 28/12/12, blue line in soft blue and sp500 in black line. I saw it same days ago here.
I supose is zig zag´s chart, but could you confirm.
Thanks a lot
Staying long since yesterdays entry.
Edit: Stop moved to 1451. 7pt gain locked in.
Thanks
Anthony
Just to confirm, you are seeing a high tomorrow as opposed to ZZ, and going lower till Oct 9??
High Friday +/- 1 day. Decline into November. Watching price to exit long and go short.
Anthony, That’s your map but are you confident it will happen pending election time? In another words, continue having snacks until election and no big meal till then?
Who cares about the election?
So the market tanks and risk assets sells. Obama says “what inflation!!!! vote for me”
Then he gets re-elected and inflation soars.
In my opinion Keynesian economics is one thing the stock market is a totally separate entity. They are not linked. We need inflation in oil to bring down the “economy”, that is still to come after prices have softened.
Stock markets don’t top on bad news.
Thanks, I am watching inflation too via
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG5Y5Y:IND
This will be at 2.00% when bottom is at hand. Always on track from 3 to 2% and vice versa since 2009, e.g. 2010, 2011 sell offs after it hit 3%
tfinavia
Thanks very much for the chart 🙂
Another question, very interesting the chart black background, with the dates is fantastic, and fits with my short-term scenario, but there is another vith the sun and the moon similar with blue line and black the sp500, are both yours?
What kind of cycle do you work to obtain it/them?
Apology (sorry for my english is not perfect)
I believe the one with the sun and moon is Platy’s chart.
I look at highs and lows to locate dates where price reversals are likely to happen, and I like to see alignment in multiple cycles hitting close to the same time frame.
hey z whatz up, can you tell me were i can learn about the cycles please, thank you much……
Hi lajani1074,
Terry Laundry’s cycle work is a good place to start. I like to integrate a little bit of his work in my own cycle methods.
Click to access a1997introttheory_.pdf
http://tinyurl.com/9xxxyz9
THANK YOU ZZ. YOU are a genteman and zscholar……
No I don’t have a Sun/Moon chart. I normally try to catch the larger cycles so I pay attention to Sun/Moon but I don’t really track it closely.
Oops, I meant to say Anthony’s chart.
I’m lost in space today 🙂
Hi ZigZag,
Thanks for the referance above to the book. The co-relation chart (with black background) is that based on cycles? Is it based on a particular system or type of analysis? Eg. Terry Laundry?
Thanks,
Hi Rezito,
That one is a pricing pattern that I found by looking at highs and lows in equal distance. It’s a lot like what George Lindsay used to do.
Zig Zag, i bet some weeks ago that around 13.000 DOW are short in ETF. That implies wait the time to result the falling mov. I´m waiting for the Industrials about -30% +- for 2013.
I closed my shortsposicions in DOG and DNO 4th june and i expected DOW around 13.000, finally it peak 600 points above.
If the Industrials peaks again, your position w´d be short?
Which is your target?
Mine is at least 9.000 DOW, you know.
First, 11.500-12.000
Thanks a lot from St. Sebastian, north Spain.
Apanalis, if the INDU peaks again I plan to short it. The next peak cycle hits around the 9th so I’m waiting to see how things develop.
I only follow time and I’m never sure on price. 9,000 would be good 🙂
Looks like Anthony’s call of high into Oct 4 might be in play. But the whipsaws are taking stops from both sides also…if Oct 4 is high, does that mean we go lower into Oct 9-12??
Hi curiousmind,
Oct 9-12 should be the next peak and I think it will hit lower than the Sept 14th high.
We have been just going sideway since the Sep 25 reversal. Do you still expect to see some kind of low into Oct 4?
Correlation has it as a low and that’s kind of what I’ve been expecting it to be for a while now. I never know for sure until the day they hit and I like to see a big move in price on the date. It’s basically a spot where a price reversal is likely happen.
I’m really more interested in next week than anything else right now.
I guess th ekey is, where do you position yourself ahead of time…..I bought HOU which is long OIL.
I usually wait until the day it hits. I don’t follow oil that much, but I think you’re okay with HOU here.
Sure, I can do that. 🙂
That is correct, currently in cash waiting to see how next week unfolds.
Past three days showing same pattern on ES, gap down during Asia session, recover up during European open and sell off during US afternoon, lets see if we sell off again today
here we are at spx/es 1445 and compx 3137. Market should at least pause here. The overshoot on spx/es usually means we’re going higher.
the higher targets are:
spx/es: 1449, 1451, 1455.5, 1464, 1467-68
compx: 3147, 3151, 3165, 3171
Took profit on /dx, 80.025, 11am.
Oil looks to be bottoming.
Reminder to consult your financial adviser before making trades. PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER TO THE LEFT OF THIS PAGE.
You might be right. Been following oil for a long time. Got a good short higher looking for a long slow down. This quick short down from 100 was too quick looks more like a correction to a higher move. I’m out of oil for now. bottoms are a little hard to pick.
Oil is very tricky. Pretty high volume and an obvious stop. Probably good at least for a nice bounce if not a bottom.
long dust ……or in other words short gold…with stops
Gman – I’m on the opposite side of the trade. I’m long SLV, I think all the signs pointing to it breaking to the upside to around 36.50 in a week.
long and strong, for a month or two, God bless and thanks for mentioning! I appreciate it.
Hey Tfinavia – I have my stop at 32.39 though, if SLV falls below that, then it’s heading down near term before heading up. $32.40 was its daily cycle low last Wed., oil has already moved below its low last Wed., so there’s a possibility SLV may follow suit. 3 years from now, SLV should triple though. God does bless !
Hey man, Oil shows a preview. Why chase SLV for a small reward from here?
I actually bought it near the low last Wed., so I’ve got some room before the stop. Oil is trying to reach its intermediate cycle low, where SLV has already reached its daily cycle low last week, so they’re not really in the same cycle. If SLV gets to 36 next week like I think, that’s 10%, big enough for me to let it work. Honor the stops though.
QE3 to mitigate the strong contraction- from oct08 to marc09 from 9.000 to 6.500 DOW-, GDP 2ndQ 1,3%, 3rd down 1% and 4Q under 0%?:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Shedlock-121002-Plunge-in-CEO-Expectations.php
ZZ or anyone….what pivot points would you watch to determine if the Oct 4/5th low is still in play or not?
Hi SS76,
I don’t follow any pivots and only look at cycle alignments. Although, I guess you could call them pivots. There is potential for price reversal tomorrow. Today is supposed to be up and tomorrow down, so I just do a little fishing today
while I wait and see what happens tomorrow. 🙂
http://tinyurl.com/9szdxxy
hey z whatz up, how or were do i learn about the cycles thank you much…
sorry, in recession in the end of 2012!!
zig zag, consider US enter in recession in the end of 2013, new highs in 2013?, I bet, new lows, 1st in may13, after, double bottom in summer- you can see platy signals about it? target at least 9.000, -0,618 from march09 to spt12?, always in the Industrials.
3 years is the top in this icreases- about 100% in the Industrials in this cycle roofs, 17 years from 2000.
If you see your path chart, new lows in november12, and can you show us the continuation of the chart?
15dec12 trouble day and 21st worst.
Thanks
Hi apanalis,
I’m hesitant to show it going out that far because these things only have so much time before they flip and follow a new time frame.
I agree with what you are saying. It’s getting a bit long in tooth. Thanks.
Hi,
I know you have posted a link to your forecast chart a few times before that shows the Oct 4th low and Oct 9th high and then down into November etc…
Is there a permanent place that we can see this chart on this site since I feel bad asking you for the link again?
Thank you Zig.
Here you go, don’t feel bad for asking 🙂
http://tinyurl.com/8wvxysl
watching gold close….cit oct 5–8 …..has made two shooting star patterns (bearish) in just one week will enter DUST as soon as technicals confirm…..$$$
just a reminder for tommorrow 10/4/2012….grand cross….VE-MA-NE-MO
T-square-SU-PL-UR / T-square VE-MA-NE / T-square VE-MO-NE
T-square MA-VE-MO / Tsquare-MA-NE-MO……also Jupiter RX .US election debate tonight 10/3/2012……market will react one way or the other ….follow the trend …..
Re-entered 2pts cheaper price 1444.06, moved stop down 4pts at 1440.06, will let this one play out until/if stopped.
1:14 Wednesday (EDT) – Time in New York, NY, USA
Bought SPX cash 1446.06
20:03 Tuesday (EDT) – Time in New York, NY, USA
Stop 3.5pts
Edit: Closed out 1443.96
21:51 Tuesday (EDT) – Time in New York, NY, USA
Loss: 2.1pts (will look for lower re-entry as not respecting support)
It’s beginning to look like the QE effect is making a mockery of technical and cycle analysis with unusual market behavior that’s hard to decipher
It’s either that or the planets are having a laugh at our expense ! I would what mercury is up to these days 🙂
SS76 (above) asked a question I had. How do you trade these cash spx numbers over night? What vehicle do you use?
That was my question with SS76. I guess that when I post without loging in, it will post as annon. Not my intention.
SPX cash derivative with IG. Highly leveraged.
I don’t trade overnight, I sleep through the session and catch the close. I just keep my position open with stops.
I looked up IG on the internet. These appear to be options. Is that correct?
No. CFD
compx low 3101 and low spx (esz2) 1432
important resistance for compx here at 3118. next resistance: 3123, 3130, 3137
important resistance for spx at 1435.5 and 1441. next resistance: 1445, 1452
thank you all and god bless
10/3/2012 gap down tommorrow on open and a quick reversal …..in my humble opinion
oops correction on that was looking at tza chart ….not spy
Notice how SPY respected the upward sloping channel in the first chart. May look to enter long if i can get a decent entry.
ZZ high Sep 18&25 (Sep 14 & 21)
ZZ low Oct 2&4(could be Sep 28 & Oct 2)
They both early of 2 days
Next ZZ high Oct 9 could be Oct 5
~My wild guess
That wouldn’t surprise me 🙂
I can usually nail down the general direction, but it’s the path it takes which can be difficult at times.
It’s possible it could be the 5th if we see a huge up on Friday. Weeklies are hitting Oct 9th, so it can really be anytime next week. Most of my stuff is hitting closer to a Oct, 9,10,11 window, with emphasis on the 9th.
important support for compx here at 3109. next support: 3101, 3095, 3081
important support for spx here at 1435. next support: 1432, 1426-28
Guys,
Here are the link for some key Oct dates; euro crisis prespective…may line up with your forecast…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/october-offers-more-hurdles-for-euro-crisis-2012-10-02
Thanks Sb.
Back in dollar long, 79.65. I think we just had some stop grabbing. Stop below today’s low. 11:54.
agree, look how the market tanked right after Europe closed.
we are nearing the oct 5-8 crest for gold watching dust close if it can go above 24.39 on the daily chart will enter …………cheers
gannman, do you expect much of a correction in gold?
will hold dust in to next cit 11/1/2012 have a order to get in at 24.44
Thanks for the follow-up.
picked up spy 145octputs @1.68………will cash out friday………or if i get stopped out …cheers keep up the good work
Nice GM, good luck!
out of those puts @2.20 time for a quick bite
Thanks CM 🙂
I’m thinking it either hits the upper trend channel or the other red line higher up which is a larger triangle, or both. So the target is around 80.5 right now.
Long /dx 79.68 9:27am
do you have a target for DX? Great entry btw…
Stopped out, small profit.
here we go…
zig zag,
thanks for your work, your time frame appears to be long, so could you tell me if u think that spx reaches all time new highs in 2013 and do u plan to load up in the dip later this month. thanks
Hi Phantom,
My plan is to buy this potential dip around election time. The forecast going forward depends on what the market does between now and the election. If we selloff to the election then I believe we see new highs late next year, if we don’t, then I think we’ll see a major down move in 2013.
For now, my focus is on that October 9th area.
If the dollar hits 79.67 I’m back in long.
Very nice trade Anthony !!
Exited 1451 6.5pt profit.
6:28 Tuesday (EDT) – Time in New York, NY, USA
good moring anthony . i read what you said last nigth and did nothing now im mad at myself you were rigth again
How did you do this in pre market?? What securitie did you trade? I am trading HSU and HSD on the TSX…
Nice one Anthony 🙂
i have one more cit 12/21/2012 astrowise 12/19/2012 venus trine uranus (TOP) 12/22/2012 venus in oppositon to jupiter 12/25/2012 sun square uranus but heres the kicker..another yod -kite which begins at midnight GMT on dec 20/21 and last thru dec 25 …and heres the planets SA-JU-VE-PL…cheers mark your calendars …
Thanks Gannman, appreciate your input here as always. God bless you.
Hi Anthony just with your entry price at 1444 is that on the futures or CFD cash price? If possible can you please also mentioned what vehicle you are using when mentioning prices ie cash/futures.
Thanks for the great work Anthony,Zig Zag & Platy.
CFD cash.
Thanks Anthony
i know we have to get thru october first …but looking ahead i have 3 cit dates …11/1/2012 a minor nov 12 and 11/27/2012 ….the 11/27/2012 is one of interest..on 11/28/2012 there are 8 yod aspects and 4 yod-kite aspects …looking back if i can remember a yod -kite occured at the time of the deepwater horizon blowout (22:cdt on april 20 , 2010 )
Gannman,
i have similar dates. Although im suggesting a “dance off” around the 22 Nov? Will you be joining me?
yep
See you there
LOL…almost fell of my chair………keep up the good work…..Jeremiah 29:11..For I know the plans I have for you , declares the LORD , plans to prosper you and not to harm you , plans to give you hope and a future ……The force be with you Always….cheers .
Interesting that you decide to go long here. I would have thought that you would want to buy around spx 1430 or so overnight
Trading the charts Mike. Risk is 4pts bounced off strong support.
I understand but on the channel, we are right in the middle. it could go either way. I would have thought you would have shorted around spx 1453 or buy spx 1430. Not sure if there is an edge right here.
Mike if theres no decent risk reward i wont enter. There are smaller channels with the larger channels suggesting that my risk is 4. My upside is 12-15pts. Plus the gain from the short offsets the risk of this long so its kind of a free trade.
Havent seen you around for a while?
make sense. I thought you were looking for a bigger trade. Anyway, work have been very busy so I haven’t trade much. Thanks to you, platy, and zz for this blog. Also thanks to all the contributor here.
Dont work too hard Mike. We do our best to provide you guys with the best entry/exit to make a bit of extra cash. Check in a bit more often
Anthony
Hi Anthony
Thanks for the update.
You have a stop for your 1444 entry?
Thanks!
Stop 1440
Thanks. Have a great evening. 🙂
Thanks!
Filled @ 1444.57
20:50 Monday (EDT) – Time in New York, NY, USA
Ok im going to throw a cat amongst the pigeons here.
Yesterday futures intraday reached about 1423. At this point i was still holding shorts so i moved my stop down and was doing quite nicely. By the end of the Aussie session i had given back most of my gains and exited at a small profit. The long and short of it is that my roadmap is showing up into 4/5 October. I think yesterday was a stealth low.
I have a buy order at 1444.16
If we do head down to 1414-1405 ill buy for a high into 9-10 October. Im just trading my roadmap time chart on the off chance the market threw a curveball.
out here in texas we call it two steppin….its a great dance provided you have the right partner (brilliant minds out here ) and the right pair of boots (your indicators)….its going to be a choppy week but by the end of close on friday and dividing the hi/lo of the week we will know who is in charge ..bulls/bears …be on guard…. trade with the trend ……cheers
In light of today’s action, today might have been the high and we decline into Thursday, sort of what Karen is saying, ZZ’s low on Oct 4 might just play out…so I am assuming DX should strengthen for the next 2 days before reversing again, possibly hitting the top of Platy’s DX channel at around 80.3ish. Gold and silver tried to break out but fell back, could silver have topped out today?
Nice pullback today, so the bearish scenario on my chart is still in play, we could see a low on 3rd, could spill over to the morning of the 4th…
But my chart shows a big move up on the 4th and then down again on the 5th…
Thank you Karen!
To be fair, there’s always a 50-50 chance in the market so ofcourse if you have 2 charts showing different directions ones bound to be correct !!!!
Anon, please remain positive on this blog.
The more positive energy this blog as the more profits we will all make.
If youd taken my trade you would be up 4pts already. We try our best here to make you guys money, were not here to lead people astray.
Actually, that’s quite silly for you to say that, because if you had paid attention, the two charts were very different in their characteristics, which I have explained here before. They both had bullish and bearish moves, but in different time horizons…
Who can truly master the daily squiggles and wiggles? Identify the prevailing trend and go with it…the trend is your friend!
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! …Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
from the novel ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ – “…biography of Jesse Lauriston Livermore”
Honestly, I suck at day trading and this site is helping me look at the bigger picture. Had I done so when ZZ was posting his charts on SC’s blog many months ago, I would have made a lot of money.
ditto
i think we have some commonality on that point…
not aware of SC’s blog…please provide a link…thanls!
Hi Rotrot,
Thanks for the post…Do you mind sharing what you like holding for long positions?
hi…any expectations for today/tomorrow based on the pop this morning. ie. still confident we drop from here to 1420…..or we’re no longer confident and expect higher markets until the 9th….thanks in advance…
hello..anyone out there to provide some guidance on where we go from here. ie. do we go back down this afternoon or do we see us just rising to the Oct 9th timeline from here.
I am trying not to be a nuisance but would appreciate some short term guidance with SPX since today is quite an up draft. thanks.
Hi Testy, no change in plans. Down into the 2nd and/or the 4th.
thank you for responding Platy…..i will hold on to my shorts then and see how it plays out…..
Hi Testy,
We’re still below our projected high on the 25th. If short, then that’s where a stop should be. It’s possible the 4th will be a double bottom before a push to the 9th.
I tend to look further out in time, so I’m probably not the best one for short term guidance. I’m more interested in Oct 9th than anything else right now..
tks…i decided to sell my short at a loss on the recent pullback since i got in a little late and will reload once clarity returns….tks again for your input everyone
Good morning,
do we still think we will see SPY 142 by tomorrow?
Looks like things are reversing down, I sold my longs to lock in profits.
That was good timing Q!
I guess the general disagreement/confusion about today was always going to make it a difficult day 🙂
well said mike
at what point in the chart is the red target invalidated? 1460? or is it already invalidated….thanks
Short /es 1440.75 9:15 am
Congrats on you DX trade earlier….I guess you still believe we are going down to 1410-1420 level to short the positive move this morning….Good luck with it Platy…
Yep, I may go long the dollar again if it gets back to lower channel support.
do you have a chart of the DX with the channel support? Thanks
You are a brave one Platy. If SPX doesn’t reverse down soon, then I think the bottom was in last week already.
stopped out
If we don’t get a big pullback today, my original chart could be correct…up into the 3/5th….
This could be Jupiter trine the Sun messing up charts and forecasts…the positive aspect can trump everything else….
It is possible we get a new high….within a week of Oct 4 as Merriman has suggested….
good afternoon platy
no aspects today …….hmmmmmmm..but mars conjuncts north node tomorrow…..
just my 2 cents ….gap up this morning but me mindful of ism number comming up within 30 minutes of open….dont think selling is quite done until thursday …will go long if market can register a change of trend on the weekly chart this week …..important week for gold cit oct 5-8 will enter dust once technicals confirm….
Hello Anthony,ZZ and Platy, many thanks for your wonderful job, Just wondering, with these market trend predictions and skills that you have, is that possible to predict any potential recession (time wise)? appreciate your perfect job again.Best. HM2535
Sorry, “recession” is to complex a word for me.
Took profit on /dx long, 80.245, 10:49pm
Nice! 🙂
Great exit! Look at how DX tanked not long after…looks like today may be the high with futures trading right now? Did you get stop out? or you took profit already?
Took profit. I was playing the channel.
NDX daily…
and we are …….down on the futures 🙂
Good luck to all of you this week
SPX symmetry..
http://tinyurl.com/98vww7e
Hi Pindar,
The correlation has Oct 2nd and Oct 4th as lows and I think it’s Oct 4th that will be the low before we see a peak around the 9th. For a quick trade, I would buy half if we’re down on the 2nd, then wait and see what the 4th does.
Hi ZigZag,
Thank you for your great charts. I would like to offer my take on what I am looking for. Please take it for what it’s worth, but I believe we need to go down a little tomorrow to finish a down wave and then we head up until possibly Oct 4 you turn date, with a final bigger wave C down which could finish a zigzag at around 141 or so. Thank you again everyone for a constructive exchange of ideas. Good luck guys
Hi Tom_27,
That could happen as well. I just look at the cycles in relation to correlation and do my best to find the most probable path.
Thanks 🙂
One chart that I had showed a bounce into the 4th and then down into 5/8th, so I was assuming the turn on Monday was up, and then down into Thurs/Friday, but the days can be shifted…so not extremely accurate, but now the bounce into the 4th makes sense.
Because my other chart shows that the turn on Monday is down into the 3rd, with a bounce on the 4th, then back down into the 5th to what looks like a lower low….which now makes sense with ZZ’s charts and dates…
Hi Karen, so you’re saying the 1st chart is inverted and it’s now down mon-wed, bounce thursday and back down Friday ? Pretty much like last week then.
If that’s the case, Anthony and even Platy spx target look very possible
thank you rotrot
AAPL…significant negative divergence between price (although it is not shown it was higher recently then it was in the spring) and the weekly trend indicator (orange/blue) which has turned down…histogram (gold) is negative…pivot (green) signaled a sell…two cycle indicators (blue and pink) are negative…good luck with your trading…