Change-In-Trend

with Anthony, ZigZag & Platy

A Roadmap for Silver

Let’s review silver’s behavior for November.

On 11/1, silver made a top as Uranus at 36° opposed Venus at 72°, discussed here.

In the same thread we showed a 36° Mars-Jupiter-Saturn Golden Triangle, which caused a major bottom for the metals.

Silver then rallied until Neptune turned direct at 36° on 11/11, also shown in the thread above.

A low was then made on 11/13 when Neptune at 36° opposed Venus at 72°, discussed here.

A strong rally was made until Venus conjuncted Saturn at 36° on 11/27, mentioned here.

A major top was put in on 11/29 with a Ceres 36° harmonic crossing, also discussed in the thread above.

Since then we have been looking for a bottom to be made as Earth conjuncts Jupiter at 36° on 12/3, or Venus at 72° opposes Uranus at 36°.

The following is an outline of possible future behavior. It may need to be adjusted as it plays out.

It appears that the bottom will be put in on the 3rd with the Jupiter-Earth conjunction at around $33 (38.2% retracement). At this point silver will have broken out of its trend channel. Then a sharp reversal should be made for a re-test of the channel, forming a top (right shoulder of a head and shoulders) at around $34.2 on about 12/4 with the Uranus-Venus opposition. We should then see a long drop to the 50% retracement at around $32.6 on about 12/13 as Uranus turns direct at 36°. This will be eagerly bought but then a larger drop should bring silver down to the 68.2% retracement level at about $32.1 on about 12/18 with a Ceres-Earth conjunction at 36°, and then double bottom on about 12/21 when Venus conjuncts Saturn at 72°. At this point silver should make a strong rally for new highs. See roadmap below.

SilverRoadmapII

Silver Futures

(Note: For some reason the bottom dates on the TOS chart above are off by 2 days. Please ignore the TOS dates and look at the dates labeled in white instead.)

Notice the date for the final low, 12/21/12. My long time readers will recognize this as a very important planetary alignment.

Addendum: Fibonacci retracement chart, requested by a reader.

SilverFibo

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73 comments on “A Roadmap for Silver

  1. Witold (@delubicz)
    December 13, 2012

    Hi Platy,
    silver and gold have potential low on 12/18 and double bottom on 12/21 according to your roadmap,why you have bought already today both metals?

  2. Witold (@delubicz)
    December 6, 2012

    Hi Platy,
    I have a problem,still have long contracts (silver,platinium and palladium),I’ve sold already today long gold.With your roadmap in silver could be that your up days before continuation of down move are behind us(very weak two doji) and tomorrow we will start down trend until 12/21. What do you think? Today’s action on eur/usd looks like not the last by the way.
    best witold

    • platypusfoot
      December 6, 2012

      Please disregard the roadmap.
      I think we have a chance that the bottom is in now. Yesterday was still in the timing band for my last CIT, which is why I was pretty aggressive about getting a position even though I kept getting stopped out. We could go lower but gold has strong support not far below, and is bumping up against a very long term trendline. If we do go lower I will look for 61.8% retracement in silver and a double bottom in gold (1670’s) to go long. Good luck!

      • Witold (@delubicz)
        December 7, 2012

        Hi Platy,
        as I told eur/usd went further today (your DX up),could be only the first leg (A), I’m expecting some kind of B,and then C down, if it’s only the normal pullback in uptrend, not change in trend. This is not healthy situation for PM

        • platypusfoot
          December 7, 2012

          I believe strongly that we are near the bottom for PM’s. I entered silver this morning. I’m going to keep trying on this because I want to have a position I can just hold on to and not worry about.

        • platypusfoot
          December 9, 2012

          Looking at this more, I think that 1711 is going to give gold some trouble. Silver is already showing resistance at 33.35. I think I will take profit at these points and wait a little longer. My next turn date is 12/13.

          • Witold (@delubicz)
            December 9, 2012

            Hi,
            I bought back part of gold on Friday,but I’m going to sell all of my long position in metals on Monday,those resistances in both metals are strong
            best Witold

            • platypusfoot
              December 9, 2012

              Thanks for that confirmation Witold. I’m writing an update now. Good luck!

  3. platypusfoot
    December 6, 2012

    Soooo, the basic shape of the silver roadmap had played out but on a much faster time scale than I had anticipated. And it has reached 50% retracement, which could indicate a bottom. Gold is running into long term trendline support and there are major supports in the 1670’s. My biggest concern is a possible double bottom in gold with the November low. So I am long but with a tight stop.

  4. platypusfoot
    December 5, 2012

    I’m giving gold one more chance today. There are several signs I’m seeing that we could have a turn around here and if so I don’t want to miss it.

    • hm2535
      December 5, 2012

      I am looking to go Long on Gold too, but it is getting some complecated, even with Indexes.

  5. hm2535
    December 5, 2012

    I am looking at 11-13 as bottom for Gold. Could be Silvere ther too.

    • platypusfoot
      December 5, 2012

      I bet you mean 12-13 😀

      • hm2535
        December 5, 2012

        🙂 Just I considered days before and after. Dec.13.2012 is the exact date but I wish that could be exact, Nothing in this word is exact, Only My Bills comes in exact amonut or exceeding 😀

        • platypusfoot
          December 5, 2012

          Ok I get it now LOL sorry I misunderstood 🙂

  6. gannman
    December 5, 2012

    platy just my 2 cents silver should bottom around 12/24……….no counter trend .as i always say and do ………….use stops cheers

    • platypusfoot
      December 5, 2012

      Thanks GM, but it’s my job to go against the trend :D. Anyway yesterday’s lows have been violated so I’m done for now.

    • Anthony
      December 5, 2012

      That would coincide with equities low, in my bearish scenario, thanks Gannman

  7. Andrew
    December 5, 2012

    Hello Anthony,

    Thank you for your comments. I have decided to copy the message which i addressed to Zig-Zag this morning for your ease of reference. I think it is important, that you listen to the podcast, as it also validates Zig-Zag’s strategy for the next three months or so. Moreover, the downside targets suggested for the metals are quite unnerving……. My humble opinion is that this strategy is not necessarily cast in concrete, but on the otherhand cannot just be dismissed, particularly as this analyst has such an amazing forecasting track record. However, we also wish to remain objective with yours, Platy’s and Zig-Zag’s analysis (and not necessarily curve-fit), but shall also continue to monitor market trends against a backdrop to the aforementioned analysis.

    Thank you

    Andrew

    Good morning Zig-Zag.

    Thank you for your comments. I am of the opinion, the least I could do is provide a link so that you can listen to the commentary! As the analysis correlates with your scenario for next year, it is my opinion that I should become a subscriber to receive your periodic updates regarding this scenario during the ensuing three months. I note from this forum, visitors to this blog have great confidence in your trading analysis, and I shall appreciate being able to act with confidence upon your recommendations.

    https://www.smartstox.com/analysts/david_bensimon

    Andrew

    • tfinavia
      December 5, 2012

      Andrew,

      On “Moreover, the downside targets suggested for the metals are quite unnerving”: I thought he said -15% haircut on Gold which would translate to 1530 from around Oct 9 prices. That would be ~26 support levels for Silver. Am I interpreting correct target levels from the podcast?

      Thanks!

      • Andrew
        December 5, 2012

        Finavia,

        Thank you for your mail. I recall from the podcast, there will be a pitstop for GOLD at 1530 on the way down to 1420, and for silver at 22. A benchmark for the S&P500 at 1260. I wonder what the forecast is for Crude Oil? To obtain further information, one would have to subscribe to the quarterly report. However, did you note that he recommended that investors keep their powder dry, Silver will outperform Gold in a ratio 3: 1. I am reluctant to say it, but should we reach these downside targets, it will literally set up the buying opportunity of the century!!

        • Andrew
          December 5, 2012

          Finavia,

          Further to my posting of even date, the suggested downside for GOLD is 1440 and not 1420 as previously stated! I am pleased to inform you that I have traced a further blog from the same analyst, which extrapolates the prices for GOLD and SILVER during the February time-frame. The video analysis was recorded on the 6th November.

          http://www.kitco.com/kitconewsvideo/

          I really would appreciate receiving your comments to this coverage.

          Regards

          Andrew

          • tfinavia
            December 5, 2012

            Thanks Andrew. I appreciate your info and view.

            I read Tiho’s blog at http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/

            He is a fund manager and I enjoy his thorough analysis and view. He is a long term bull on Gold and Silver with a largest position on commodities in his fund. He does not nail a major move to the day but pretty close. Recently it was in July 2012 when PM sentiments were on the bottom and still price did not start uptrend so he was having split idea of another sell off and then huge rise. We all know it was a sharp huge rise but no further sell off happened like Silver to 22 in July 2012. Here is my point. In his recent analysis he states that bullish sentiment on metals is still very much abound. A lot of bloggers calling for Gold rise here and now. And he would like to see a good old fashioned down move whereas bulls throw in towels and central bankers and governments panic and offer huge stimulus which would be very good for Gold and Silver. David’s analysis is similarly coinciding with a sharp down move on SPX to 1260 and Gold bottom. On another hand, I anticipate higher dollar per other analogs I follow on the USDX in the beginning of 2013.

            Another one is VIX. It’s time to VIX at 42 per recent VIX cycles since 2008. If that’s the case, then SPX could be at 1260, dollar sharply higher within fear of deflation and PMs will be sold hard.

            Now, since the trendline David is talking about is having a confluence in February would point to 1530 or 1440, I do not know and can’t recall from the podcast. 1440 and 22 would be staggering opportunities and I will wait for it. For your crude question, I would say since you know the timeframe, you can easily apply technicals on crude chart and will be able to nail the bottom.

            Hope this helps.

            Thanks!

            • Andrew
              December 5, 2012

              Finavia,

              Thank you for your comprehensive reply……it is very much appreciated. I am currently signed up with Coghlan Capital, and are hoping to do some shorting of GOLD. Brian Bloom at Gold-Eagle is also forecasting a low at $1530. My money is indeed on David Bensimon. I have within the past hour forwarded an e-mail to Daniele Cambone, requesting that David is brought back onto their show to give us a market update. Please note my second link above for further clarity regarding downside targets. As an aside, may I enquire which part of the world you reside in? Prosperous Regards. Andrew. PS! Trading is the Rolls-Royce of the financial markets, a lonely pursuit, and certainly not for the fainthearted!

  8. Witold (@delubicz)
    December 5, 2012

    Hi Platy,
    new situation,gold,silver,platinium yesterday made new lows(could be botom),and now up together with s&p until 12/11(ZigZag’s new CIT for high),or until 12/09 (Peggy’s synodic CIT). Both dates are before FED meeting.
    best Witold

    • Peggy Mateer
      December 5, 2012

      I’d be much happier with 12/9 being a high for gold and the late Jan cit being a low. I think we have further to go on the downside and may stand aside if 12/9 is a low. fwiw.

    • platypusfoot
      December 5, 2012

      I got stopped out. Gold is what worries me, because a re-test of the 1675 low would make sense. However, there is a very long term trendline that is coming in to play that could give support. I may try getting back in the metals at a double bottom from yesterday’s lows. Platinum has already touched.

      • Witold (@delubicz)
        December 5, 2012

        Platy,I’m believing in my scenario,that the low of A correction is in,now B leg is underway,then C leg before reasuming of uptrend.
        Hi Peggy,
        thank you,I’m always reading carefully your posts!
        best Witold

        • Witold (@delubicz)
          December 5, 2012

          By the way,first off all, it is your scenario,with the timing which is more difficult

        • platypusfoot
          December 5, 2012

          That sounds very reasonable!

  9. Anthony
    December 4, 2012

    Looks like ill need to work on a bearish metals scenario this week.

    • platypusfoot
      December 4, 2012

      That would be very helpful, thanks Anthony!

  10. Andrew
    December 4, 2012

    Platy and Anthony,

    A highly respected analyst informs his clients that his forecasts for Gold since 2001 have all been met. The issue I face, is that to acquire his quarterly commodity report is prohibitively expensive!

    However, in a rare public podcast, he has stated there is a turning point where all markets i.e. Gold, Silver, Oil, Indexes are going to reach a confluence during FEBRUARY 2013 at much lower prices! Indeed, a significant buying opportunity for years to come!

    I am requesting that you archive my posting, with the view to identifying via astro-analysis, if the analysts projection for the stated markets comes to fruition, whilst enrolled as one of your potential subscribers!

    Looking forward to receiving your comments.

    Andrew.

    • platypusfoot
      December 4, 2012

      Hi Andrew, thanks for this. I am cautiously long now. We had a turn date so we should get a reversal here but gold’s longer term chart does not look healthy to me, and we have Peggy’s 12/9 expectation for a low. So for now I am looking for silver to re-test the trend channel it broke out of, and then assess the situation from there.

      Can you give us the name of this analyst?

      • Andrew
        December 4, 2012

        Platy,

        Smartstox : David Bensimon Interview
        http://www.smartstox.com

        Thank you

        Andrew

        • platypusfoot
          December 4, 2012

          Thank you Andrew!

          Hmmm, can’t seem to find the correct interview.

          • Andrew
            December 4, 2012

            Platy,

            https://www.smartstox.com/analysts/david_bensimon

            Regret the inconvenience.

            Andrew

            • platypusfoot
              December 4, 2012

              Thanks 🙂

            • beetlejuice
              December 5, 2012

              Thanks Andrew. I also have huge rervations for the metals going forward given he technical picture in he weekly and monthly GDX charts.
              That said, the Aussie goldies were underperforming on the rise in gold in November and yet they are now begining to outperform the last week on this decline.
              Its never ever straight forward is it? I think caution is the operative word here until the mist clears.

              • Anthony
                December 5, 2012

                Beetlejuice/Andrew

                I have to agree with your outlook, in particular the miners. I could easily see GDX dipping under $40 in the new year. This also means that the miners scenario in the roadmap section needs amending so ill try to get a bearish outlook together this week.

                For the meantime however we could get our fake double bottom then continued collapse.

                Cheers

                • Andrew
                  December 5, 2012

                  Hello Anthony,

                  Thank you for your comments. I have decided to copy the message which i addressed to Zig-Zag this morning for your ease of reference. I think it is important, that you listen to the podcast, as it also validates Zig-Zag’s strategy for the next three months or so. Moreover, the downside targets suggested for the metals are quite unnerving……. My humble opinion is that this strategy is not necessarily cast in concrete, but on the otherhand cannot just be dismissed, particularly as this analyst has such an amazing forecasting track record. However, we also wish to remain objective with yours, Platy’s and Zig-Zag’s analysis (and not necessarily curve-fit), but shall also continue to monitor market trends against a backdrop to the aforementioned analysis.

                  Thank you

                  Andrew

                  Good morning Zig-Zag.

                  Thank you for your comments. I am of the opinion, the least I could do is provide a link so that you can listen to the commentary! As the analysis correlates with your scenario for next year, it is my opinion that I should become a subscriber to receive your periodic updates regarding this scenario during the ensuing three months. I note from this forum, visitors to this blog have great confidence in your trading analysis, and I shall appreciate being able to act with confidence upon your recommendations.

                  https://www.smartstox.com/analysts/david_bensimon

                  Andrew

        • Anthony
          December 4, 2012

          Thanks Andrew

    • tfinavia
      December 4, 2012

      Hi Andrew,

      What is the date the podcast was relayed, do you know?

      Thanks!

      • Andrew
        December 4, 2012

        Finavia,

        The podcast was recorded on the 9th October.

        https://www.smartstox.com/analysts/david_bensimon

        Andrew

        • tfinavia
          December 5, 2012

          Thanks Andrew, it’s a very sharp analysis by David and very convincing perspective which coincides with major indices lows per Eurodollar COT net positions a year earlier. Thanks for sharing! Good luck to you….

  11. Peggy Mateer
    December 4, 2012

    reminder of the synodic cit I follow for gold (metals) – 12/9 is coming up soon. Now looking like it will be a low. fwiw.

    • platypusfoot
      December 4, 2012

      Thank you Peggy!

    • Andrew
      December 4, 2012

      Peggy,

      Will you be contributing as a paid subscriber at the new website?

      According to Platy, you also have a firm grasp regarding trends in GOLD. I Invite you to read my comments addressed to Platy and Anthony above, regarding the identified February turning point for the metals!

      Look forward to receiving your comments.

      Andrew

      • Peggy Mateer
        December 5, 2012

        hi Andrew. I don’t know anything about David Bensimon’s work. My gold cits are based on synodic cycles. Next one after 12/9 is late January 2013. fwiw.

  12. platypusfoot
    December 4, 2012

    As of right now silver is looking really weak. I’m considering that today might actually have been a high. Let’s see what happens tomorrow.
    The dollar reached 61.8% retracement so that may give it a lift.

  13. black rain
    December 4, 2012

    Hi Platy,

    Thanks for update.

    I feel that tomorrow will be volatile.

    Some type of high.

    Have a great evening.

    Black Rain

    • platypusfoot
      December 4, 2012

      Thanks Black Rain, you too!
      For now we still have trendline support but it looks to be weakening.

  14. platypusfoot
    December 3, 2012

    An update on what I’m thinking…
    Today was a turn day and I was expecting a low. My dates can be +/- 1 day and it looks like the low came early (Friday) because today was an inside day. If this is the case then we are currently in an uptrend until the next turn date, which is tomorrow. So basically the roadmap is still in play and we are looking for a high tomorrow, with a strong possibility that it will be a lower high than Thursday’s high – around $34-34.4 would be ideal.
    Even if we hit that target I may sit back and watch a little first just to make sure before I take a trade. The dollar is looking very weak so we have to be cautious.

    If instead silver fails to move up tomorrow, the roadmap will need to be re-worked.

    • Witold (@delubicz)
      December 4, 2012

      Hi Platy,
      I think ,that the roadmap for silver (and gold) could be a little bit different. Silver made a higher low today(instead of yesterday),gold a lower low,and now together with s&p should move up until 5/6 then again down,with pullback in eur/usd. What is your update after this weakness in metals.

      • platypusfoot
        December 4, 2012

        You could be right Witold. Yesterday was a high, today is a low. I’m trying to catch the bottom.

  15. ratandrea
    December 3, 2012

    Platy, when you trade silver do you use SLV and ZSL? I’ve never traded silver but have been reading about it over the past months.

    • platypusfoot
      December 3, 2012

      I usually trade futures.

  16. Jason
    December 1, 2012

    Gman talks about anniversary dates and last year silver had a minor bottom on the 15th with a minor top on the 21st before hitting its major bottom on the 29th. Obviously some correlation with your dates Platy. Thanks!
    Jason

    • platypusfoot
      December 1, 2012

      Nice observation, thank you Jason!

  17. black rain
    December 1, 2012

    Thank you Platy,

    Most excellent work.

    • platypusfoot
      December 1, 2012

      Thank you Black Rain… we will see whether it is or not! LOL

  18. Anthony
    December 1, 2012

    Hi Platy

    Love this post and the fact that you provided this roadmap, very comprehensive. Interesting that the turn dates mimic very closely the equities bearish scenario roadmap in terms of turn dates. Great stuff.

    • platypusfoot
      December 1, 2012

      That is interesting Anthony, I hadn’t noticed that!

  19. curiousmind
    December 1, 2012

    Thanks Platy. That’s a very clear roadmap. Will be watching closely. One question is that is it possible for price to overshoot your target on the said date? today we came very close to 33, on Dec 3, maybe +/- 20 cents of 33? is that possible?

    • platypusfoot
      December 1, 2012

      Absolutely possible! These are just guidelines and not strict targets.

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